Belarus released 123 political prisoners over the weekend after the United States announced it would lift certain sanctions on Belarusian potash following talks in Minsk. The move, brokered by U.S. special envoy for Belarus John Coale, marks a notable thaw in ties between Washington and the reclusive, Moscow-aligned government led by President Alexander Lukashenko.
Potash For Prisoners
The U.S. Treasury published guidance allowing trade with three Belarusian potash firms: Joint Stock Company Belarusian Potash Company, Agrorozkvit LLC, and Belaruskali. Belarus is a major global supplier of potash, a key ingredient in fertiliser, and sanctions had been imposed under the Biden administration after the 2020 crackdown on protesters and Belarus’s role in facilitating Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
In return for the easing of those U.S. measures, Minsk freed high-profile detainees including protest leader Maria Kolesnikova, Lukashenko challenger Viktor Babariko, Nobel laureate Ales Bialiatski and journalist Marina Zolotova. An American citizen and five Ukrainians were also among those released. Belarus said that some Belarusians and Russians detained in Ukraine were subsequently freed by Kyiv.
U.S. 'In The Driver's Seat'
Analysts say Washington appears to be leading these negotiations. Belarusian political expert Artyom Shraibman told the Carnegie Centre that the U.S. is effectively handling requests from several EU countries and Kyiv as part of these talks. Observers note U.S. interest in securing visible humanitarian and diplomatic wins while pursuing broader efforts to ease tensions in Eastern Europe.
During the visit, Coale said Lukashenko provided "advice" on Russian President Vladimir Putin, which Coale described as "very useful" for discussions on Ukraine — underscoring why the U.S. views Minsk as a potential interlocutor in the region.
Regime Expectations and Limits
The Lukashenko government hopes the potash concession is the first step toward lifting additional sanctions, including those affecting banking and elite circles. However, the U.S. decision does not erase remaining hurdles: separate EU sanctions continue to restrict transport to EU ports and practical export routes remain constrained.
Shraibman suggested countries such as India and Brazil may now be less worried about secondary U.S. sanctions and could resume or expand purchases of Belarusian potash — providing Minsk important revenue opportunities.
Rights Concerns and Opposition Challenges
Human rights groups warn that repression in Belarus continues despite the releases. Viasna estimates roughly 1,200 political prisoners remain detained. Freed dissidents, including Bialiatski, have pledged to continue advocacy from exile while warning that detentions persist at home.
The opposition in exile also faces internal divisions. The recent release of figures such as Sergei Tikhanovsky sparked controversy and highlighted fractures that Minsk may exploit; selective releases could deepen rivalries or misunderstandings among opposition groups.
What Comes Next
The developments open the door for further dialogue between Minsk and Washington but do not signal a full rehabilitation of Belarus on the world stage. Key questions remain: whether additional sanctions will be eased, how EU restrictions will be reconciled with U.S. decisions, and whether the releases presage a genuine change in Belarus’s domestic human rights practices. For now, the potash concession and prisoner swap represent a cautious diplomatic step with significant economic and political implications.
