Former Trump Voters Who Backed Democrats in 2025 Say Candidate Quality — Not Just Anti‑Trump Messaging — Will Decide 2026

Swing Voters From New Jersey And Virginia Say Moderation, Competence And Local Priorities Mattered

In focus groups conducted after the 2025 New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections, 14 swing voters who supported President Donald Trump in 2024 explained why they chose Democratic governors this year — and what would persuade them in 2026. The sessions, organized by Syracuse University with research firms Engagious and Sago and observed by NBC News for its "Deciders" series, revealed that candidate quality, moderation and concrete local proposals mattered far more than a simple anti‑Trump protest.

Who Was In The Room

The group included 12 self‑described independents, one Republican and one Democrat. Exit polls showed that Govs.-elect Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia each picked up roughly 7% of people who had voted for Trump in 2024. But in the focus groups, most participants said their votes reflected the individual candidates’ records and temperament rather than only opposition to the president.

Why Sherrill And Spanberger Appealed To Them

Participants repeatedly cited moderation, pragmatic problem‑solving and national‑security or public‑service backgrounds. Many praised Sherrill, a former naval officer and federal prosecutor, and Spanberger, a former CIA officer and congresswoman, as competent and steady — qualities they found lacking in partisan politics.

“Mikie is just proven to me. Naval officer, formal federal prosecutor, mother of four. She’s tough, but she’s like the quiet storm. She’ll get things done,” said Cynthia G., 52, of New Jersey.

Mixed Views Of Trump And The Parties

Ten of the 14 focus‑group participants said they disapprove of Trump’s job performance so far, and many complained about high prices and what they see as dysfunctional party politics. They expressed especially sharp criticism of the Democratic Party’s national brand, calling it “dishonest,” “weak,” or “out of touch.” Yet most insisted that their gubernatorial votes were driven by candidate qualities — not solely a protest against Trump.

Where They Disagree With The Administration

On policies, participants were divided. Some supported aggressive trade measures and credited the administration for economic strengths such as stock‑market gains or falling prices for certain goods. Others blamed tariff policy and other actions for higher costs and inflation. Immigration and enforcement practices — including mass deportations and ICE tactics — drew widespread concern. A near‑unanimous reaction condemned extreme rhetoric, such as social‑media posts labeling political opponents “seditious” and “punishable by death.”

What This Means For 2026

Participants’ bottom line for both parties was clear: to win over swing voters, nominate credible, moderate‑minded candidates with demonstrable competence and clear local plans. Anti‑Trump messaging alone, they warned, is unlikely to secure their votes; candidate background, temperament and concrete proposals will be decisive.

Sources: Focus groups conducted by Syracuse University, Engagious and Sago; observed by NBC News as part of the 2025 “Deciders” series.