Tennessee Special Tonight: Can Democrats Extend Their Momentum? — Plus a Looming ACA Deadline

Tonight’s special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District could offer an early signal about the political environment heading into 2026. Republican Matt Van Epps enters the race as the favorite, but Democrat Aftyn Behn appears within striking distance according to the only independent public poll — and a much tighter-than-expected result would extend a trend of Democratic overperformance in special House contests this year.

The race in Tennessee

The 7th District includes parts of Nashville, all of Clarksville and wide stretches of exurban and rural middle Tennessee. It typically leans strongly Republican: President Trump carried the district by 22 points in 2024 and by 15 points in 2020. Yet in 2025 special House elections, Democrats have improved margins by roughly 16 to 22 points compared with last year’s presidential results, driven by energized Democratic turnout and some swing voters who backed Trump in 2024 but have since shifted away from him and his party.

If Democrats produce a similar swing in the 7th District, the GOP margin would fall into single digits — enough to make Republicans nervous. A comfortable, double-digit win for Van Epps would signal that Republicans succeeded in mobilizing their base and in focusing voter attention on Behn’s progressive positions and past inflammatory rhetoric. Conversely, a narrow outcome or a Democratic win would reinforce the narrative of Democratic momentum in off-cycle contests and recall the run-up to the 2018 midterms, when special election upsets presaged broader gains.

Steve Kornacki will provide live analysis of the results at 7:45 p.m. ET on television and streaming platforms as returns come in.

Capitol Hill: a shrinking window to blunt higher premiums

Congress has less than a month before many Americans face higher health insurance premiums, and hopes for a bipartisan short-term fix are fading. Senators who supported reopening the government earlier this year hoped to secure action on roughly $35 billion in Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies enacted in 2021. Those pandemic-era subsidies capped premiums for benchmark plans at 8.5% of an enrollee’s income.

“I’m not hopeful that that’s going to happen,” Sen. Gary Peters (D–Mich.) said. “We’ll keep trying to work at it, but I’m not feeling good about it right now. ... Things are not coming together like I would’ve hoped that they would.”

Senate Republican leaders have promised Democrats a vote on a health-care measure, but any measure would likely need 60 votes to pass. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R–S.D.) said the two sides are not close to a consensus and that he has not yet seen a proposal that would reach the necessary threshold. Democrats favor a clean extension of the expiring ACA funds; many rank-and-file Republicans want the pandemic-era subsidies to lapse, and GOP leaders have not offered a clear alternative to start serious negotiations.

Other developments to watch

Defense Department inspector general report: Two sources familiar with the investigation said Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has been given a final copy of an inspector general report examining his sharing of sensitive military information in a private messaging group. The report could be released publicly soon.

Boat strike fallout: Hegseth defended a follow-up U.S. strike on an alleged drug-smuggling boat in the Caribbean by invoking “the fog of war” after reports said the later attack may have killed survivors of the initial engagement.

Children’s book controversy: The publisher of the Franklin the Turtle series criticized the violent use of a children’s character in a social post shared by Hegseth that was captioned “Franklin Targets Narco Terrorists.”

Russia-Ukraine diplomacy: Steve Witkoff, serving as a special envoy, and Jared Kushner met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow in talks that U.S. officials hope could prod the Kremlin toward ending the war in Ukraine.

Renewed attack: Former President Trump again attacked Rep. Ilhan Omar (D–Minn.), using derogatory language and urging Somalis to “go back to where they came from.”

Philanthropy announcement: Tech philanthropists Michael and Susan Dell pledged $6.25 billion for an initiative they described as creating 25 million additional “Trump Accounts” for children nationwide.

2026 watch: Former Wisconsin lieutenant governor Mandela Barnes entered the Democratic primary for governor in a crowded field. Rep. Ayanna Pressley said she will not challenge Sen. Ed Markey in next year’s Democratic primary in Massachusetts. Sports commentator Paul Finebaum said he will not run for the U.S. Senate in Alabama.

Infrastructure and culture: Former President Trump announced plans to pursue a reconstruction of Dulles International Airport in northern Virginia, calling it “a terrible airport.” Pop star Sabrina Carpenter condemned a government video that used one of her songs alongside images of immigration enforcement, calling the usage “evil and disgusting.”

This edition was compiled from reporting by Steve Kornacki, Sahil Kapur and Adam Wollner, with quotes from public officials cited above.