High Stakes in Tennessee: Special Election in GOP 7th District Seen as an Early Test Before 2026

Less than a month after Democrats posted a string of wins on Nov. 4, voters in Tennessee’s reliably Republican 7th Congressional District head to the polls Tuesday in a special election that will draw national attention as an early preview of the 2026 midterms. The result could slightly change the narrow House Republican majority and will be watched as a measure of each party’s strength heading into next year.

Who’s running

Republican Matt Van Epps, a West Point graduate and former Army helicopter pilot who led Tennessee’s Department of General Services under Gov. Bill Lee, is the GOP nominee. He won a crowded October special primary and is backed by former President Donald Trump and outgoing Rep. Mark Green.

Democrat Aftyn Behn, a state representative first elected in a 2023 special election, emerged from a four-way Democratic primary. A former organizer and progressive activist, she has attracted attention for her energetic campaign and strong fundraising.

National attention and money

High-profile appearances and heavy spending have marked the race. Trump participated in a tele-rally for Van Epps just as early voting began; then–Vice President Kamala Harris traveled to Nashville to urge Democratic turnout. By mid-November Federal Election Commission filings showed Van Epps raised an additional roughly $590,000 after the primary while Behn raised about $1 million in that period. Earlier figures showed Van Epps had spent roughly $348,000 and Behn about $168,000 before their respective primaries.

District profile and recent voting

The 7th District has returned Republicans to Congress for more than a dozen years and voted about 60% for Donald Trump in 2024. The district includes parts of Davidson County (Nashville), which leans heavily Democratic, but those urban votes represent roughly one-fifth of the district’s total. After 2022 redistricting, Davidson County was split among three neighboring districts, strengthening Republican advantages across much of the 7th.

Turnout and early voting

There were roughly 466,000 registered voters in the 7th District during the November 2024 general election. Turnout that year was about 69% (presidential year), compared with roughly 41% in the 2022 midterms. Early and absentee voting has been substantial: across the district’s 14 counties, about 73% of 2024 ballots were cast early or by absentee, and through Nov. 26 — the last day of early voting — just over 84,000 ballots had already been cast for the special election.

Counting, results and recount rules

Vote tabulation in the district can proceed quickly: in prior special primaries and the 2024 general election many returns were reported within hours of polls closing. Media organizations typically declare a winner only when the remaining uncounted ballots could not plausibly change the outcome.

In Tennessee, recounts are not automatic and occur only as part of court-initiated legal challenges; losing candidates cannot request automatic recounts. A contest subject to litigation may still be called if the lead is large enough that a recount or legal challenge could not change the result.

Practical details for voters and observers

The special election will be held Tuesday. Polls in the district close at 7 p.m. local time (8 p.m. ET); the 7th District lies entirely in Tennessee’s Central time zone. Any registered voter who resides in the 7th Congressional District may vote in the special election. Results will be reported as counts come in, and news organizations will evaluate when the outcome is clear enough to declare a winner.

Where this leaves the calendar: As of Tuesday there will be 336 days until the 2026 midterm elections.