Democrats Push for Upset in Tennessee GOP Stronghold as Special Election Tightens

Fresh from a string of recent off-year gains, Democrats have mounted an aggressive bid in a deeply Republican Tennessee congressional district where a special election could deliver an unexpected blow to the GOP's margin in the U.S. House.

On Tuesday voters will choose a successor to Republican Mark Green, who resigned from Congress in July. The district was redrawn by state Republican leaders and last year backed both Donald Trump and Green by roughly 22 percentage points—making a Democratic win a steep uphill climb.

Under normal circumstances, Republican nominee Matt Van Epps would be the heavy favorite. But Democrats point to recent wins in other off-year contests and a close Emerson College poll that shows Van Epps leading state representative Aftyn Behn 48% to 46%. That tight margin has drawn national attention and money to Behn’s campaign.

"We still expect that the Republican will prevail, but would not be surprised if it were a single-digit race," said Dave Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst at the Cook Political Report. Political operatives on both sides say turnout—particularly among Black voters, who make up about 15% of the district—could determine the outcome.

The district stretches from the Kentucky line down toward Alabama and includes rural counties, parts of Nashville and the swing city of Clarksville. While much of the territory is solidly Republican, Democrats hope stronger turnout in urban and suburban pockets will narrow the gap.

Democratic-aligned groups have poured resources into Behn’s bid. The House Majority PAC spent $1 million on digital and TV ads, and other groups are running spots attacking Van Epps’ record and ties to wealthy donors. National figures including the Democratic National Committee chair and the vice president have campaigned for Behn.

Former President Trump and conservative groups such as MAGA Inc. and the Club for Growth have responded with their own advertising and endorsements for Van Epps. Van Epps’ campaign has sought to portray Behn—a former Indivisible organizer—as a far-left candidate, highlighting a podcast remark in which she said, "I hate this city," referring to Nashville.

A Behn victory would shrink the Republican majority in the House and could create a pathway—if only narrow—for Democrats to reclaim the chamber next year should further vacancies occur. The resignation of Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene has already underscored how fragile narrow margins can be.

Even if Behn falls short, Democrats argue a close result in a heavily Trump-leaning district would be a political win: it could help recruit candidates, attract funding, and force the GOP to defend seats it once regarded as safe. Republicans counter that special-election turnout is atypical and such contests are poor predictors of broader election trends.

With the race too close to call, both parties have ramped up last-minute spending and ground operations, turning a single district contest into a national test of momentum ahead of 2026.