Tehran on the Brink: President Warns of Water Rationing and Possible Evacuation If Rains Don't Come

Tehran faces an unprecedented water and energy emergency

TEHRAN — Iran’s president warned that the capital is confronting an unprecedented water and energy crisis as reservoir levels have plunged to historic lows, jeopardizing drinking water supplies and electricity generation across the region.

“If it doesn’t rain in Tehran by late November, we’ll have to ration water. And if it still doesn’t rain, we’ll have to evacuate Tehran,” President Masoud Pezeshkian told the semi-official SNN.ir news agency, calling conditions “extremely critical.”

Crisis at a glance

Officials say Tehran’s dam reservoirs are at their lowest levels in roughly 60 years, and the city is now in its sixth consecutive year of drought. Some reservoirs are operating at under 10% capacity. In eastern Tehran, the Latyan Dam — one of five principal reservoirs serving the capital — is reported to be about 9% full, holding roughly nine million cubic meters of water, Deputy Energy Minister Mohammad Javanbakht said.

How the shortage affects power

Tehran’s electricity system remains heavily dependent on hydropower and fossil-fuel thermal plants. As rivers and wetlands dry, hydropower output has fallen and several power plants have been forced offline because there isn’t enough water for cooling. Experts warn that the link between water availability and electricity generation is now direct and severe: reduced hydropower capacity and cooling shortages at thermal plants increase the risk of blackouts.

Underlying causes

Officials and analysts point to multiple contributing factors:

• Persistent drought: Six years of below-average rainfall have dramatically lowered reservoir levels.
• Inefficient water use in agriculture: Agriculture still consumes about 80% of Iran’s freshwater, much of it through outdated irrigation systems and water-intensive crops in arid regions.
• Policy and planning choices: Critics say long-standing policies located water-hungry industries — steel, cement and petrochemicals — inland rather than on the coast. Lawmaker Reza Sepahvand argues rivers were diverted to serve these factories instead of siting them where desalinated water could be used.
• Underinvestment and sanctions: Sanctions, investor wariness and decades of underinvestment have slowed efforts to diversify Iran’s energy mix toward solar and wind.

Proposed responses and challenges

Authorities and experts have proposed several measures, including relocating heavy industry to coastal areas that could use desalinated water, modernizing irrigation systems to reduce agricultural consumption, and accelerating renewable energy deployment. However, such changes require substantial investment, time and political will.

Agricultural official Gholamreza Gol Mohammadi warned that outdated irrigation and overpumping are draining aquifers and aggravating power outages as pumping systems falter.

Environmental and social toll

The ecological consequences are mounting: dust storms increasingly blanket major cities, and Lake Urmia in the northwest — once among the world’s largest saltwater lakes — has effectively dried, leaving salt flats that intensify dust storms and threaten surrounding communities. Officials warn that without significant rainfall or rapid mitigation, citizens could face strict rationing and other emergency measures.

What to watch

Key near-term indicators include rainfall forecasts for late November, reservoir inflow reports (especially for Latyan and the four other main reservoirs), and official contingency plans for rationing or relocation. International attention on Iran’s water and energy vulnerability may also rise if the situation worsens.

Sources: Statements from Iran’s president reported by SNN.ir, remarks by Deputy Energy Minister Mohammad Javanbakht and Agriculture Ministry officials, and reporting on reservoir levels and Lake Urmia.