First Autumn Rain Brings Little Relief as Iran Faces Worsening Water Crisis

TEHRAN — Rain fell in Tehran on Wednesday for the first time in months, offering a brief respite amid what meteorologists describe as the driest autumn in more than half a century. Officials say the light showers are not nearly enough to reverse a deepening water emergency that has depleted reservoirs and strained daily life in the capital.

This satellite picture from Planet Labs PBC shows Latyan Dam outside of Tehran, Iran, May 23, 2025. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)(ASSOCIATED PRESS)

First Autumn Rain, But Reservoirs Remain Critically Low

Social media footage and satellite imagery analyzed by news agencies show many reservoirs sharply depleted. The Latyan Dam, one of five primary reservoirs serving Tehran, is reportedly under 10% capacity as Iran enters its sixth consecutive year of drought. Officials in the Iran Meteorological Organization say autumn precipitation is roughly 5% of a normal season, and warn that even normal winter and spring rains would still leave an estimated 20% shortfall.

This satellite picture from Planet Labs PBC shows Amir Kabir Dam outside of Tehran, Iran, Nov. 19, 2025. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)(ASSOCIATED PRESS)

Why Iran Is Especially Vulnerable

Geography makes much of Iran naturally dry: the Alborz and Zagros mountain ranges create rain-shadow effects that limit moisture from the Caspian Sea and Persian Gulf. But experts point to water management choices that have amplified the problem. Agriculture consumes an estimated 90% of Iran’s water supply, and decades of policies—including incentives from the post-1979 era to expand domestic food production and generous water policies—helped promote irrigation of marginal lands, planting of water-intensive crops and over-extraction of groundwater.

This satellite picture from Planet Labs PBC shows Amir Kabir Dam outside of Tehran, Iran, May 20, 2025. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)(ASSOCIATED PRESS)

Human, Political and Economic Costs

The shortage has become a political and social issue. In Tehran, billboards and public campaigns urge residents to conserve water, and some neighborhoods face hours-long interruptions in service. The crisis has provoked localized protests in the past, and leaders warn of broader instability if shortages continue. President Masoud Pezeshkian has even said officials may need to consider relocating parts of the government if dams around the capital are not replenished by the end of December—a drastic and costly measure at a time of economic strain and international sanctions.

This satellite picture from Planet Labs PBC shows Lar Dam outside of Tehran, Iran, Nov. 18, 2025. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)(ASSOCIATED PRESS)

"The water crisis in Iran has, in recent years, escalated from a recurring drought issue into a profound political and security problem that has the regime leadership concerned," said the Soufan Center.

The Role of Climate Change

Climate scientists warn that warming has made severe droughts more frequent and intense. World Weather Attribution said that with global temperatures about 1.3°C higher due to fossil fuel emissions, an event of this severity could occur roughly every 10 years, compared with once every 50 to 100 years without that warming. The group also notes that rising temperatures increase evaporation and reduce snowpack in critical mountain ranges, compounding water stress.

This satellite picture from Planet Labs PBC shows Lar Dam outside of Tehran, Iran, May 20, 2025. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)(ASSOCIATED PRESS)

Near-Term Outlook

Officials and analysts say meaningful relief requires both higher-than-normal precipitation and long-term policy changes—from more efficient irrigation and crop choices to stricter groundwater limits and urban conservation measures. For now, the recent rain is welcome but insufficient to solve a crisis shaped by climate change, decades of water-intensive policies and growing demand in a populous capital.

Sources: Iran Meteorological Organization, World Weather Attribution, state and independent media reports, satellite imagery analyses.