Researchers find that climate change threatens wine, coffee and chocolate, and that Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) would not reliably protect these crops. A modelled scenario for 2036–2045 showed temperature reductions but improved conditions in just six of 18 key regions. Key remaining threats include precipitation changes, humidity and pest pressures. Experts stress emissions cuts plus local adaptation, resilient farming and global cooperation to safeguard livelihoods.
Climate Threat to Wine, Coffee and Chocolate: Why Geoengineering Alone Won’t Save Them
Researchers find that climate change threatens wine, coffee and chocolate, and that Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) would not reliably protect these crops. A modelled scenario for 2036–2045 showed temperature reductions but improved conditions in just six of 18 key regions. Key remaining threats include precipitation changes, humidity and pest pressures. Experts stress emissions cuts plus local adaptation, resilient farming and global cooperation to safeguard livelihoods.
02:19, 07.11.2025Environment
Climate change is putting wine, coffee and chocolate at risk — and geoengineering may not be the answer
Researchers warn that beloved luxury crops such as grapes for wine, coffee and cocoa are increasingly threatened by human-driven climate change. A new modelling study suggests that a proposed geoengineering method — Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) — could lower temperatures in some regions but would not reliably restore the complex conditions these crops need.
What the study modelled
The study simulated SAI over 18 major growing regions for grapes, coffee and cocoa in western Europe, South America and West Africa during 2036–2045. While the intervention reduced surface temperatures in the simulations, it produced consistent improvements for only six of the 18 regions analysed.
Dr. Ariel Morrison, Colorado State University: 'Reducing temperature with Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) alone isn't enough.'
Why cooling alone is insufficient
SAI is designed to mimic large volcanic eruptions by injecting sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere to form sunlight-reflecting sulfate aerosols. Although this can lower temperatures, the study found multiple reasons why it may not protect luxury crops:
- Precipitation and humidity: A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, so lowering temperature does not reliably prevent heavier rainfall, flooding or sustained high humidity — all of which can damage crops.
- Pests and diseases: Crops such as cacao can tolerate heat better than coffee or some grape varieties, but they are highly vulnerable to pests and pathogens that respond to changes in temperature, rainfall and humidity together.
- Climate variability: Natural variability can produce unexpected local outcomes that SAI cannot easily manage, increasing the risk of crop failure even where temperatures drop.
Local impacts on crops
Vineyards face rising threats from disease, drought, flooding and wildfires, which can alter grape acidity, color and alcohol content. Coffee plants are vulnerable to shifts in flowering and fruiting windows and reduced bean quality at higher temperatures. Cocoa has already experienced drought-related losses in key producing regions, with downstream effects on markets and seasonal holiday supplies.
What experts recommend
The authors and interviewed scientists emphasize that SAI is not a substitute for strong emissions reductions and locally tailored agricultural adaptation. Investment in resilient farming practices, pest and disease control, water management and international cooperation will be critical to preserving these industries and the communities that depend on them.
Background: The concept of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection dates to the 1970s, proposed by Russian climatologist Mikhail Budyko. Scientists remain divided about its risks and effectiveness, and recent research from the University of Colorado has highlighted additional atmospheric effects, such as altered cloud properties.