A study in Environmental Research Letters finds that cacao, coffee and grapevines are threatened by climate change and natural variability. Simulations show stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections (SAI) can cool average temperatures but do not consistently restore the regional climate conditions these luxury crops need. Small farms may face economic collapse after a few poor years, risking shortages, job losses and higher prices. Researchers urge emissions reductions, local adaptation and further research into combined interventions.
Climate Variability Threatens Coffee, Wine and Chocolate — Geoengineering Alone May Not Save Them
A new study published in Environmental Research Letters and highlighted on IOP Science warns that luxury crops—cacao, coffee and grapevines—are increasingly at risk from a warming climate and growing natural variability.
What the researchers studied
The team simulated climate interventions, focusing on stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections (SAI). SAI is a proposed solar geoengineering approach that would inject reflective aerosols into the stratosphere to reduce incoming sunlight and cool the planet.
Main findings
While SAI simulations reduced average surface temperatures, they did not reliably restore the specific regional climate patterns these crops require. Natural climate variability—seasonal shifts, intense rainfall events, cold snaps and heat waves—produced a wide range of outcomes under the same SAI scenario. That variability can still disrupt flowering, fruit set and yields for cacao, coffee and grapes.
“Reducing temperature with SAI alone isn't enough,” said Dr. Ariel Morrison, a co-author of the study, to Talker News. “Natural climate variability also cannot be ignored — it leads to a wide range of outcomes under the same SAI scenario that could affect the livelihoods of farmers growing cacao, coffee, and grapes.”
Why this matters
Small farms and vineyards are especially vulnerable: one or two years of poor yields can make such operations economically unviable. If growers abandon these crops, the consequences could include local shortages, job losses in agricultural communities and higher prices for consumers.
What the authors recommend
The study underscores that emissions reductions remain the preferred long-term solution. At the same time, researchers call for continued study of climate interventions, improved local adaptation strategies, investment in resilient agricultural practices, and coordinated global action. The authors note that combinations of interventions—rather than SAI alone—might offer better protection for sensitive crops.
Bottom line: Geoengineering by itself is unlikely to reliably safeguard cacao, coffee and wine production; tackling the problem will require emissions cuts, local adaptation, resilient farming practices and further research into complementary interventions.
