NASA has identified asteroid 2024 YR4 — about the size of a 15‑story building — as having roughly a 4% chance of striking the Moon on December 22, 2032. Earlier models briefly suggested up to a 3% chance of an Earth impact, but subsequent observations ruled out any threat to our planet. Any lunar debris reaching Earth would likely burn up, possibly producing only a short meteor shower. Scientists call a visible lunar impact a rare and valuable opportunity to study ejecta, crater formation and planetary defense coordination.
NASA: Asteroid 2024 YR4 Could Strike the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032 — A Rare Scientific Opportunity
NASA has identified asteroid 2024 YR4 — about the size of a 15‑story building — as having roughly a 4% chance of striking the Moon on December 22, 2032. Earlier models briefly suggested up to a 3% chance of an Earth impact, but subsequent observations ruled out any threat to our planet. Any lunar debris reaching Earth would likely burn up, possibly producing only a short meteor shower. Scientists call a visible lunar impact a rare and valuable opportunity to study ejecta, crater formation and planetary defense coordination.
01:47, 07.11.2025Science
NASA Confirms Possible Lunar Impact by Asteroid 2024 YR4
NASA scientists say a fast-moving asteroid first detected by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile may collide with the Moon on December 22, 2032. The object, designated 2024 YR4, was discovered in late December 2024 and is roughly the size of a 15‑story building.
Initial, refined orbital models in early 2025 briefly indicated up to a 3% chance of an Earth impact, prompting heightened observations. By late February, additional measurements ruled out any risk to Earth. Updated projections now put the likelihood of a lunar impact at about 4%.
NASA emphasizes there is no cause for public alarm. Any debris ejected from the Moon that heads toward Earth would almost certainly burn up in the atmosphere; at worst, fragments could produce a brief, localized meteor shower visible for a few hours. No ground impacts or damage to people or infrastructure are expected.
Why Scientists Are Excited
For researchers, a confirmed, visible impact on the Moon would be scientifically invaluable. Real-time observations of crater formation are rare. A collision observed from Earth would let scientists study how ejecta disperses, how energy is absorbed by the lunar surface, and how craters develop — offering insights into processes that shaped the solar system over billions of years.
“The Moon is our archive,” a NASA researcher said. “Every crater is a chapter in its history. If we get to watch one form live, that’s extraordinary.”
Planetary Defense in Action
YR4 has already tested global planetary defense coordination. After discovery raised initial concerns in early 2025, NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office activated and the International Asteroid Warning Network organized rapid follow-up observations from telescopes worldwide. This quick response — and improvements in orbit modeling — demonstrates how rapidly the community can shrink uncertainties, a capability that complements earlier missions like DART (2022), which proved trajectory alteration is possible.
Astronomers expect to observe YR4 again in 2028, when it returns into view for more precise measurements of its shape, composition and density. Even if the asteroid misses the Moon in 2032, it will continue to pass near the Earth–Moon system through the 2030s, giving scientists multiple opportunities to refine predictions.
In short, whether or not YR4 strikes the Moon, the episode underscores how active and dynamic our solar system remains and highlights the growing maturity of planetary defense and rapid-response astronomy.
Sources: NASA, ESA, CNN