Mary Peltola holds a 7-point lead over Sen. Dan Sullivan in a New York Times/Siena poll conducted Sept. 24–Oct. 1 (Peltola 50% vs. Sullivan 43%; ±5.1% MoE). The poll was released after a Sept. 23 NYT exposé that quoted staffers alleging abusive language and behavior by Peltola; her campaign denies the claims and cites intense personal grief in 2023. Other recent polls show a much closer race, and Peltola continues to press Sullivan on his stock trading record as Democrats view Alaska as a potential Senate pickup.
Alaska Poll: Mary Peltola Leads Dan Sullivan by 7 Points After NYT Staffer Report
Mary Peltola, a Democrat running for the U.S. Senate seat in Alaska, addresses supporters at an election watch party Tuesday, Aug. 18, 2026, in Anchorage, Alaska.
A New York Times/Siena University poll conducted Sept. 24–Oct. 1 among 504 likely Alaska voters shows Democrat Mary Peltola ahead of Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by seven percentage points, with Peltola at 50% and Sullivan at 43% (margin of error ±5.1%). The poll was released after a Sept. 23 New York Times story reporting allegations from current and former staffers about Peltola's workplace conduct; her campaign has denied the claims.
Poll Results And Context
The NYT/Siena survey represents Peltola's strongest showing to date in this race. While the +7 advantage is notable, the poll's ±5.1% margin of error means the race remains competitive. Other recent polls present a tighter picture:
- Quantus Insight (Sept. 28–30; 758 likely voters): Sullivan 46.1% vs. Peltola 45.5% (0.6-point gap; firm called it not a 'measurable lead').
- Trafalgar Group (Sept. 22–24; 1,079 likely voters): Sullivan +1.
- co/efficient (Sept. 14–17; 799 likely voters): Sullivan +2.
- Alaska Survey Research (Sept. 10–12; 1,352 likely voters): Peltola +5 (±3% margin of error).
Allegations, Response And Political Fallout
The New York Times article published Sept. 23 quoted current and former staffers who alleged instances of angry outbursts, offensive language and an incident in which Peltola shoved a staffer. The report cited allegations that she used derogatory slurs toward staff; Peltola's campaign strongly denied those claims and said she was coping with extraordinary personal grief in 2023 after the deaths of her mother and husband while balancing congressional duties and parenting.
'Like any person who has gone through multiple personal tragedies in the span of a few months, Mary sometimes struggled to deal with her grief,' campaign spokesperson Harry Child told The New York Times.
Republican allies have used the Times story in campaign ads. The Last Frontier PAC ran an ad featuring material from the exposé, while the Sullivan campaign has sought to highlight the allegations as part of its attack strategy. Early evidence suggests some voters expressed disappointment but did not necessarily change their preferences immediately after the story's publication.
U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with US Senator Dan Sullivan, Republican from Alaska, as he makes an announcement in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on September 30, 2026.
Campaign Themes: Stock Trades And National Stakes
Peltola's campaign has emphasized Sullivan's personal finances as a vulnerability. Reporting by the Alaska Current identified Sullivan as a highly active congressional stock trader, estimating roughly $2 million in trades during his time in office and reporting he was found to have violated provisions of the STOCK Act in 2022. Peltola supports a ban on congressional stock trading and has reported no significant individual stock holdings.
The Alaska Senate race has national significance: Republicans hold a narrow 53–47 majority in the U.S. Senate, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. Alaska has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 2008, but Democrats see Peltola's centrist appeal and recent polling movement as a potential pickup opportunity.
Trump Approval And Voter Dynamics
The NYT/Siena poll also showed former President Donald Trump's approval underwater in Alaska: 48% of likely voters 'strongly disapprove' of his job performance and 8% 'somewhat disapprove,' compared with 29% who 'strongly approve' and 12% who 'somewhat approve.' That shift, along with Peltola's outreach to independents and moderate Republicans, could affect the race's dynamics in the closing weeks.
What Comes Next
With early October polling showing both fluctuation and tight margins across surveys, the race remains competitive. Voter response to the NYT report, continued ad spending by both sides, and late-breaking developments on policy or character issues will likely determine the outcome as Election Day approaches.
News outlets contacted both campaigns for comment.
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