The Harvard CAPS/Harris online poll (Sept. 26–28, 2026; 2,200 registered voters; ±2.1%) shows Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Donald Trump Jr. gaining support among potential 2028 presidential contenders while early frontrunners Kamala Harris and J.D. Vance slipped. The survey also finds 42% of voters remain undecided ahead of the midterms. Inflation is the top personal concern (45%), and 53% of respondents say the economy is worse than under President Biden.
AOC and Donald Trump Jr. Gain Ground in Early 2028 Poll as Frontrunners Slip
Donald Trump Jr., left, speaks to reporters at a rally in Charleston, South Carolina, on February 23, 2024, while U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez speaks during the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on August 19, 2024. (GETTY/AP)
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Donald Trump Jr. made notable gains among voters weighing potential 2028 presidential contenders in a new Harvard CAPS/Harris online survey, while the early frontrunners in both parties lost some support. The poll offers an early snapshot of a race that is still forming: none of the tested candidates have formally launched campaigns.
Poll Results: Shifts in Early 2028 Matchups
Among Democrats, former Vice President Kamala Harris remained the top choice at 38 percent, down four points since August. California Governor Gavin Newsom held second at 17 percent, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rose three points to 12 percent. Ocasio-Cortez has said she will weigh a possible 2028 bid after the midterm elections and has discussed the gender dynamics of a presidential campaign.
“This country has never elected a female president. Why are we pretending that this is not a factor?” Ocasio-Cortez told The New York Times. “That doesn't make it impossible, but to act as though it's not a factor in anything ever is really a form of, like, denialism.”
Republican Field
On the Republican side, Vice President J.D. Vance remained the top pick at 39 percent (down three points). Donald Trump Jr. jumped six points to 24 percent, while Senator Marco Rubio stood at 17 percent. Trump Jr. has at times left open the possibility of a future White House bid but has publicly said he currently has “ZERO interest” in running in 2028.
Poll Methodology
The Harvard CAPS/Harris poll was conducted online from September 26–28, 2026, among 2,200 registered voters. The survey’s margin of error is approximately ±2.1 percentage points.
Midterms, Economy and Top Voter Concerns
With 35 days until the November midterms, the poll found a large share of voters remain unsettled: 42 percent said they had not firmly decided their midterm choices (26 percent leaning toward a candidate, 16 percent undecided), while 50 percent said they were definitely decided.
Voters were closely divided on economic comparisons to the Biden era: 53 percent said the economy is worse today, while 47 percent said it is better. Independent voters were more negative, with 61 percent saying the economy is worse now than under President Biden.
Inflation remains the top personal concern (45 percent), followed by emerging issues such as artificial intelligence (15 percent).
Gas, Diesel and Energy Comments
National averages reported by AAA put regular gasoline at $4.46 per gallon and diesel at $6.44 per gallon. Former President Donald Trump defended his administration’s economic record, citing historic employment numbers, and suggested gas prices will fall if the Iran-related conflict ends. Energy analysts warned that while oil remaining below $100 per barrel could allow modest price declines, regional pressures—especially on the West Coast—and geopolitical risks could push prices higher or lower with little notice.
Newsweek contacted representatives for both Ocasio-Cortez and Donald Trump Jr. for comment.
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