Early 2028 Polls: Buttigieg and Ossoff Lead JD Vance as Markets Favor Democrats

With more than two years until the 2028 presidential election, Vice President JD Vance trails multiple hypothetical Democratic opponents in early general-election polling averages while holding only a narrow advantage over one tested Democrat.

Polling Averages and Standalone Surveys

A polling average tracked by Race to the WH shows former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff each leading Vance by roughly the same margin: Buttigieg 48.5% to 43.9% and Ossoff 48.5% to 44.1%. Ossoff has repeatedly said he is not interested in a 2028 presidential bid.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris also leads Vance in the tracker, 48.3% to 44.4%, while California Governor Gavin Newsom holds a slimmer edge, 45.5% to 43.6%. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the only Democrat in the average who trails Vance, at 42.0% versus Vance's 44.9%.

What Individual Polls Show

Emerson's standalone surveys behind the averages show Buttigieg with the largest Democratic lead over Vance; in that matchup, 8% of voters were undecided. Buttigieg was the only Democrat in Emerson's test to hold an identical five-point lead over Florida Republican Marco Rubio. Ossoff and Newsom led Rubio by narrower margins, while Harris trailed Rubio despite leading Vance.

A year earlier, Emerson found Vance ahead of Buttigieg by a point (44% to 43%) with 13% undecided. Emerson's executive director Spencer Kimball noted then that about 13% of the electorate remained persuadable — a figure that has since fallen.

Democratic Primary Tests, Prediction Markets

Buttigieg has also led in hypothetical Democratic primary polling: Emerson showed him at 19% in July, and an August Quantus Insights survey put him at 25.7%, ahead of Ossoff (21.3%) and Ocasio-Cortez (15.3%). A Saint Anselm poll in New Hampshire similarly found Buttigieg at 25%, the top showing among named Democrats there.

Ossoff's national profile has risen; Quantus found him at 21.3% among Democrats and at 33.5% among respondents who say they are only leaning Democratic. Prediction markets echo competitive interest in Ossoff: Kalshi and Polymarket each placed him near the mid-to-high teens in market pricing among Democratic contenders.

Ocasio-Cortez Matchups and Demographic Splits

Ocasio-Cortez is the lone Democrat in the Race to the WH average who trails Vance. In Emerson's August poll she lost to both Vance and Rubio; in Quantus, removing undecided voters narrowed that matchup to 51.9% for Vance and 48.1% for Ocasio-Cortez. Quantus crosstabs showed Ocasio-Cortez leading among women and voters aged 18–29 and among Black, Hispanic and Asian respondents, while Vance led among men, white voters, older voters and those without a college degree.

GOP Primary Dynamics

Vance's standing among Republican primary voters has fluctuated. Emerson reported him at 52% in February of the prior year, falling to 36% by May as Rubio rose to 35%, then showing Vance ahead of Rubio 39% to 38% two months later. Rubio has told reporters he does not intend to challenge Vance; he has publicly expressed support if Vance runs.

Market Odds and the Broader Political Environment

Prediction markets still favor Democrats in the 2028 outlook. Kalshi prices Democrats at about 60% to Republicans' 40%, while Polymarket places Democrats in the mid-60s to Republicans in the mid-30s. Vance remains a strong candidate for the Republican nomination on some market platforms, but his chances of winning the White House are materially lower: Kalshi places his presidential odds in the low 20s percent range, and Polymarket shows similar figures.

Since Polymarket launched its 2028 book in July 2025, Vance's market prices for both the GOP nomination and the presidency have eased by roughly five to six points, with much of that movement benefiting Rubio. At the same time, Emerson's generic congressional ballot shows Democrats leading by 7–11 points in recent surveys, and former President Trump's approval rating has stayed in the high 30s to low 40s.

Outlook

Early polling and market indicators suggest Vance faces an uphill path against several named Democrats in hypothetical general-election matchups and that GOP primary dynamics remain fluid as Rubio gains traction. With no formal candidacies yet and many months of campaigning ahead, these trends can shift substantially before the field is set.