The Focaldata/Financial Times poll (Aug. 28–Sept. 2; n=2,178) shows former Vice President Kamala Harris leading Democratic primary preferences with 29%, while Sen. J.D. Vance leads the Republican field with 43%. Other notable results include Gavin Newsom (14%), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (11%) and Pete Buttigieg (9%) on the left, and Marco Rubio (21%) and Donald Trump Jr. (7%) on the right. These early numbers are a snapshot and could shift after the November midterms as potential candidates make decisions and campaigns form.
Early Poll: Kamala Harris Tops Democrats, J.D. Vance Leads Republicans in 2028 Primary Snapshot
These 2 potential 2028 presidential candidates lead new primary poll
With the November midterm elections approaching, an early Focaldata/Financial Times poll released over Labor Day weekend offers a first look at how potential 2028 presidential primary fields could shape up for both parties.
Top-Line Results
The survey of 2,178 U.S. adults, conducted Aug. 28–Sept. 2, finds former Vice President Kamala Harris leading among likely Democratic primary voters with 29% support. Among other Democrats, California Gov. Gavin Newsom registers 14%, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 11%, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg 9%.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Japan and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel(Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
On the Republican side, Senator J.D. Vance tops the early GOP field with 43%, holding a margin of more than 20 percentage points over his nearest rival. Florida Secretary of State Marco Rubio is at 21%, while Donald Trump Jr. stands at 7%.
What This Means
These figures represent an early snapshot rather than a definitive forecast. Primary dynamics can shift quickly based on campaign activity, the November midterms and evolving national events. The poll highlights which names are currently resonating with likely primary voters, but won’t necessarily predict final field outcomes.
Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff(Jack Gruber, USA TODAY)
Campaign Signals and Speculation
Speculation about potential 2028 contenders is already growing. Sen. Ted Cruz recently stoked discussion of another presidential bid, saying on Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s podcast in August, "It's no secret that I want to be president." Meanwhile, Rubio has sought to downplay speculation while not ruling anything out, telling reporters during an official visit to Colombia that he has "no plans at this time" and is focused on his current duties.
On the Democratic side, former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg said on Steven Bartlett’s "The Diary of a CEO" podcast that he is "more inclined than not" to run again, but that his decision will depend on factors that become clearer after the midterms. Surrogates and family members for other potential candidates have also left open the possibility of future campaigns, underscoring how fluid early positioning remains.
Methodology
The Focaldata/Financial Times poll was conducted Aug. 28–Sept. 2 and surveyed 2,178 U.S. adults. As with all early polls, margins of error and likely-voter models can affect results; these numbers should be understood as an early gauge of name recognition and current preferences rather than a final prediction.
Note: This article corrects earlier labeling errors and clarifies roles—J.D. Vance is a U.S. senator and not a sitting vice president. The pieces above reflect verified poll results and recent public comments from the named figures.
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