War Notes: The Stories You're Missing — AI Power, Iran's Strain, Terror Threats, and U.S. Politics

Bonus: Tomorrow I’ll host a Substack live with former White House Communications Director Jennifer Palmieri. I’m a little nervous about the tech side — wish me luck. You should get an email with details at 9:30 a.m. EST. Homework: Palmieri’s new interview series, Long Play Series, is on YouTube: Long Play Series. Drop your questions for Jen in the comments.

AI: The Real Risk Is Who Gets Power

I’m increasingly uneasy about the growing influence of AI leaders and labs. A year ago, The New York Times reported that Anthropic engaged philosophers to consider whether AI systems could have rights. The headline asked: “If A.I. Systems Become Conscious, Should They Have Rights?”

Anthropic reportedly drafted a "constitution" for its systems that said the company cares about Claude's wellbeing and is uncertain about the degree to which Claude has wellbeing, but that experiences like satisfaction, curiosity, or discomfort matter to them.

The point isn’t only whether an AI can be conscious. It’s that the political response to AI could centralize enormous power in the hands of a few very wealthy, highly influential people who champion an "effective altruism" worldview. That may sound noble on the surface, but ceding control to a tech elite to protect us from AI risks exchanging one set of vulnerabilities for another.

Politics, Culture, And The System

I skipped my usual weekend column, but I wanted to share a thought: people are frustrated because the system protects insiders. Both parties, in different ways, preserve institutions that often fail ordinary Americans. When the political establishment won’t solve problems, voters gravitate toward disruptive solutions — whether that was the promise to build a wall or calls for Medicare for All. Expect Republicans to lean on culture-war messaging when economic messages falter.

Security Threats Close To Home

The foiled terror plot against a U.S. military facility in the U.K. is a stark reminder that extremist threats persist. At the same time, we regularly see clips of imams in the U.S. preaching hateful rhetoric without apparent consequence. A successful attack could be an October surprise few expect, and national security should remain a top priority.

Geopolitics: Iran, Russia, And An October Surprise

There’s an important story you aren’t hearing enough about: the economic strangulation of the Iranian regime. Treasury officials reportedly believe Iran’s economy could face catastrophic pressure in weeks. If the regime collapses or even crumbles politically, the effects on oil markets, bond markets, and the broader Middle East realignment would be profound.

Russia is also under pressure. The Spectator recently summarized a reality many observers note: autocratic regimes survive by paying security elites. Cut their funds and loyalty can evaporate, producing messy political and humanitarian consequences. Expect intense media coverage and political finger-pointing if shortages or famine conditions emerge.

On The Ground: Iowa And The 2026 Playbook

President Trump announced a major steel plant slated to open in Iowa in 2030. It’s an attention-grabbing headline, but the project won’t change immediate politics. The larger pattern is familiar: Republicans blame the economy on Democrats, promise tax relief, and double down on culture-war themes. With Trump now in the White House, campaign-style messaging from official channels is inevitable and will draw criticism.

Tonight: Tune into discussions about whether current pressure on Iran could produce a major geopolitical shock — and whether diplomacy or force will dominate the outcome. Also watch a conversation about whether culture-war anger will reshape voter behavior.

Tune into On Balance with Leland Vittert weeknights at 9/8 CT on NewsNation. The views expressed are mine and not necessarily those of NewsNation.