Decision Desk HQ moved Florida’s governor’s race to "Toss Up" after weeks of slipping support for Rep. Byron Donalds and gains by former congressman David Jolly. Recent polls show the contest essentially tied, and other forecasters — including Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections and the Cook Political Report — have shifted toward Democrats. Donalds has reduced references to former President Trump and emphasized an endorsement from Gov. Ron DeSantis. Jolly’s team called the shift a major turning point and vowed to press its agenda on housing, healthcare, education and limiting data center expansion.
Decision Desk HQ Calls Florida Governor’s Race A 'Toss Up' As Donalds’ Lead Narrows
AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell
Decision Desk HQ, a nationally recognized elections forecaster, moved the Florida governor’s race into the "Toss Up" column on Wednesday after weeks of slipping support for Republican Rep. Byron Donalds and steady gains by former congressman David Jolly.
Donalds dominated the GOP primary with help from an endorsement by former President Donald Trump, but he has struggled to build the kind of statewide advantage that recent Florida Republican nominees have enjoyed. Recent polls show the race essentially tied, prompting forecasters to re-evaluate their ratings.
Polling Shifts And Changing Messaging
Decision Desk HQ reported on Sept. 16 that Donalds’ probability of winning had decreased by seven percentage points and that Jolly was "gaining ground each week." At that time the contest was rated "Leans Republican" but was described as nearing the range for a Toss Up. One week later, the race moved into the Toss Up category, with Decision Desk HQ calling Donalds only "narrowly favored."
As national dynamics around high-profile endorsements and political figures have changed, Donalds has quietly reduced references to Trump on his campaign website and has begun highlighting his endorsement from Governor Ron DeSantis more prominently.
Other Forecasters And Campaign Responses
Other election analysts, including Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections and the Cook Political Report, have shifted their ratings toward Democrats in recent weeks, reflecting a broader tightening of the contest.
“The Florida Governor's race is officially a toss-up, but that won't change our approach. David will continue to focus on reaching every voter to share the change agenda that got us here: housing, healthcare, education, and stopping data centers,” said Mark Riddle, senior advisor to the Jolly-Graham campaign.
Jolly’s campaign called the Decision Desk HQ update "the most significant shift in the race to date" and said it would press its issues-focused message as the contest intensifies.
Why This Matters
The shift highlights how endorsements, fundraising gaps, national political currents and short-term polling swings can reshape expectations even in states that have favored one party in recent cycles. With both campaigns adjusting strategy, the Florida governor’s contest now appears set for a competitive fall campaign.
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