Fox News Reclassifies 15 House Races, Boosting Democratic Odds Ahead of the Midterms

Fox News on Tuesday reclassified 15 U.S. House contests away from the Republican column, a move that further strengthens Democratic prospects in the lead-up to the midterm elections. The changes come as President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have slipped in recent polls and as both national surveys and prediction markets increasingly favor Democrats.

What Changed

In its latest Power Rankings update, Fox News added five districts to the toss-up category, moved six races to "Lean Republican," shifted three to "Lean Democrat," and placed one in "Likely Democrat." The five newly identified toss-ups are Florida's 14th and 22nd districts (both made more Republican by redistricting but now competitive), Iowa's 2nd, Maine's 2nd and Michigan's 4th.

Across rated contests, Fox now lists Democrats as favored in 215 races, Republicans in 201, and 19 true toss-ups where neither party has a clear edge.

How Forecasters Compare

Other trackers show broadly similar patterns but differ in the details. The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball each listed more toss-ups than Fox did this week. Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Florida's 27th from "Likely Republican" to "Leans Republican," Iowa's 1st from "Toss-up" to "Leans Democratic," and Texas' 9th from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican."

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries speaks at a press conference on June 11, 2025, in Washington, D.C.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor at Sabato's Crystal Ball, compared the environment to 2018 — a difficult year for Republicans — and warned that broader political and economic forces could produce another challenging cycle for the GOP.

Polling And Market Signals

Recent polling on the generic congressional ballot has trended toward Democrats. A YouGov/The Economist poll (Sept. 18–21, 2026) found Democrats leading among likely voters, 52% to 38%. An Ipsos/Reuters survey (Sept. 17–20, 2026) showed Democrats ahead 43% to 35% (±3.2 points). A Quantus Insights poll (Sept. 15–18, 2026) put Democrats at 50% and Republicans at 42% among likely voters (±2.9 points).

Analysts including Nate Silver noted that Republican poll numbers are worsening and cited factors such as rising gas prices — and possibly public concerns about AI — as contributors to the GOP's declining standing in midterm polling.

Prediction markets have moved sharply toward Democrats: Kalshi priced Democrats with roughly a 91% chance to flip the House and Polymarket placed that probability near 93% as of Tuesday. Those markets earlier in the year showed lower probabilities — about 85% a month prior and 77% on Jan. 1 — reflecting growing trader confidence in a Democratic advantage.

Recent Midterm Outcomes

• 2016: Republicans won the House popular vote by ~1 point and held a 241–194 majority.
• 2018: Democrats won the House popular vote by ~8.6 points and finished 235–199 (one vacancy post-midterms).
• 2020: Democrats won the House popular vote by ~3.1 points and held a 222–213 majority.
• 2022: Republicans won the House popular vote by ~2.7 points and held a 222–213 majority.
• 2024: Republicans won the House popular vote by ~2.6 points and held a 220–215 majority.

What To Watch

With roughly six weeks until the election, ratings shifts, polling trends, and economic indicators — particularly inflation and gas prices — will be closely watched. President Trump's approval ratings and any major campaign or national developments could further influence tight races on or off the current toss-up list.

Reporting note: Newsweek reporters and editors used Martyn, the outlet's AI assistant, to help produce this story. Editors on the piece include Gabe Whisnant and Gray R. Thomas.