A St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics finds Democrat Angie Nixon and Republican incumbent Ashley Moody tied at 45% each among 913 likely voters (Sept. 15–17; MOE ±3.2%). The sample was weighted to Florida’s active voter registration (42% R / 31% D / 27% other). Nixon leads independents, younger voters, Black voters and Hispanic voters; Moody leads White and older voters. Observers say Nixon’s momentum may reflect renewed attention to the Hope Florida controversy and a dispute over debates.
Shock Poll: Angie Nixon Ties Ashley Moody 45–45 in Florida Senate Race
L: Angie Nixon for Florida on Facebook; R: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call via AP Images
A new St. Pete Polls survey conducted for Florida Politics finds Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon in an unexpected dead heat with incumbent Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, each at 45% among likely voters.
Poll Details
The poll interviewed 913 likely voters between Sept. 15 and Sept. 17, contacted by automated phone calls and text messages. The sample was weighted to match the Florida Division of Elections' active voter registration (42% Republican, 31% Democratic, 27% third party/independent). The margin of error is ±3.2 percentage points.
What The Numbers Show
When asked which candidate they supported for U.S. Senate, 45% named Moody, 45% named Nixon, 3% selected another option, and 7% were undecided. The same survey also showed a closely contested governor’s race, with Rep. Byron Donalds at 44% and former GOP congressman-turned-Democrat David Jolly at 43%.
Demographic Breakdowns
The poll highlights where Nixon is making gains: she leads independents 50%–37% and performs strongly with younger voters — 64% to 25% among those under 30 and 54% to 35% for ages 30–49. Moody holds advantages with older voters (47%–42% among ages 50–69 and 61%–32% among those 70+).
By race, Moody leads White voters 53%–37%, while Nixon carries Black voters 74%–14% and leads Hispanic voters 51%–39%.
How This Compares To Other Polls
The St. Pete Polls result contrasts with the RealClearPolitics polling average, which currently shows Moody ahead by about 8.7 points based on three prior surveys (Emerson, University of North Florida, Quantus Insights). Publisher Peter Schorsch also flagged a Change Research result that differed from other polls; veteran pollster Steve Vancore questioned that poll’s likely-voter screen methodology.
Possible Drivers
Analysts point to several factors that may be helping Nixon’s numbers despite being significantly outspent: renewed media attention on the Hope Florida controversy tied to Moody’s tenure as attorney general, and Nixon’s criticism of Moody for declining to commit to debates and for being an appointed — rather than originally elected — senator. Moody was appointed to the seat by Gov. Ron DeSantis after the seat was vacated.
Bottom line: The St. Pete Polls finding is a reminder that races previously viewed as settled can shift quickly — particularly when demographic coalitions move and controversies re-enter the news cycle.
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