The AfD leads by 20 points in Saxony-Anhalt with 42% in an INSA poll ahead of the Sept. 6 election, while the CDU is at 22%. Domestic intelligence has labeled the AfD's state branch as a confirmed case of right-wing extremism, raising the national significance of the race. Smaller parties — notably the BSW at roughly 5% — may decide whether the AfD can secure an outright majority, while The Left's 13% could be pivotal in blocking an AfD government.
AfD Extends 20-Point Lead in Saxony-Anhalt — Stakes Rise Ahead of Sept. 6 Vote
Visitors to an AfD information booth stand in the market square in Bitterfeld around Ulrich Siegmund (3-R), the AfD's top candidate in Saxony-Anhalt. The AfD is leading in the polls for the state election. Voters in Saxony-Anhalt will elect a new state parliament on September 6. (is associated with: «Germany's AfD takes 20-point lead ahead of crucial Saxony-Anhalt vote») Hendrik Schmidt/dpa
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has widened its advantage to 42% in Saxony-Anhalt, giving the party a 20-point lead over the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) ahead of the state election on September 6. An INSA poll published on Monday showed the CDU at 22%, while several smaller parties hover around the 5% threshold that will determine which parties win seats in Magdeburg's state parliament.
The AfD has never been part of a ruling coalition at state or federal level because mainstream parties have maintained a cordon sanitaire — often called the "firewall" — against cooperating with it. Complicating the picture, Germany's domestic intelligence agency has classified the AfD's Saxony-Anhalt branch as a confirmed case of right-wing extremism, raising the political stakes of the regional vote.
Smaller parties could decide whether the AfD can convert its lead into an outright majority. The populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is polling at roughly 5% in the INSA survey and is emerging as a potential kingmaker. The BSW split from The Left in early 2024 and has campaigned strongly against another CDU-led government in the state.
Only if the BSW enters the state parliament can the CDU premier's next term be prevented, said BSW lead candidate Thomas Schulze, adding that the AfD "will not get there on its own."
Schulze has proposed a model of shifting majorities and the appointment of a "cross-party premier" to reduce polarization, an idea rejected by AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund, who argues Saxony-Anhalt needs a stable government. The state is currently governed by a coalition of the CDU, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP).
The INSA poll places the SPD on 6% — just above the threshold — while the FDP and the Greens are both at 4%. The Left stands at 13% and could play a decisive role: although ideologically distant from the CDU, the party might be forced into tactical calculations to keep the AfD out of power.
What To Watch
Key variables in the coming weeks will be whether smaller parties clear the 5% bar, the BSW's final stance toward potential coalitions, and how mainstream parties respond to the intelligence agency's classification of the AfD branch. The result in Saxony-Anhalt could reverberate nationally, testing Germany's political firewall and reshaping discussion about coalition strategies across the country.
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