Trump Approval Drops to New Second-Term Low as Inflation and Iran War Weigh on Voters

President Donald Trump's approval rating has slid to a new low in his second term as rising inflation and the war with Iran erode voter support, increasing uncertainty for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Polling Snapshot

The RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling average now places Trump's net approval at -19.2, with 39.1% approving and 58.3% disapproving. While month-to-month fluctuations have occurred, the broader trend shows a steady decline in approval since he returned to the White House.

Where This Stands Historically

That level is just above his first-term low of 37% (net -21.1) registered in December 2017. Even after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, Trump's net rating was slightly better than it is today.

Inflation: A Major Drag

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose 3.7% year-over-year through June, well above the Fed's 2% target. Inflation climbed from 2.9% in February after briefly hitting a second-term low of 2.3% in April 2025; the rebound has been driven largely by higher oil and energy costs.

Energy Prices and the Iran Conflict

Brent crude, which had been trending lower since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, jumped after hostilities with Iran began—peaking near $118 per barrel from roughly $68 in February—then eased to about $80 per barrel but remain elevated versus prewar levels. Trump's approval specifically on inflation is deeply negative in the RCP average (-39.1).

The administration's handling of the Iran conflict is another weak spot: Trump's net approval on the war sits at -25.4, a low point since the conflict started. Polls showed further declines after four additional U.S. service members were killed in the region in late July.

Diplomacy, Markets, and a Nuclear Deal

With a previous memorandum of understanding collapsed, the administration is pursuing a new agreement intended to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and revive nuclear talks. Betting markets remain skeptical about a near-term deal: Polymarket places the probability of a nuclear agreement by Dec. 31 at about 34%.

Midterm Implications

These negative issue ratings have real implications for the 2026 midterms. Democrats lead Republicans by 6.9 points in the 2026 Generic Congressional Ballot RCP average, and Polymarket gives Democrats roughly an 86% chance of winning control of the House. Several states that trended Republican recently—such as Ohio and Iowa—now look competitive.

In Ohio, Polymarket shows former Sen. Sherrod Brown with a 51% chance of winning the Senate race, and he leads by 0.6 points in the RCP average over Sen. Jon Husted, who replaced JD Vance on the ballot. In Iowa, Polymarket gives Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson a 56% chance of defeating state Rep. Josh Turek; the two are tied in the RCP average, a significant shift from 2024 when Trump won the state by 13.2 points.

Overall, Republicans still have about a 56% chance of retaining control of the Senate. Analysts note that without the headwinds of inflation and the Iran conflict, Republicans' odds would likely be higher—Democrats would need to win multiple swing states and at least two Republican-leaning seats to take the Senate.

Bottom line: Rising prices and a volatile foreign policy environment have pushed presidential approval down to a second-term low, reshaping the 2026 battleground and raising the stakes for both parties.