Industry analysis by Forecourt Eye estimates UK forecourts have lost about £194,000 of fuel per day on average since the Iran conflict began on 28 February. Drive-offs and non-payment incidents rose roughly 20%, and stolen fuel volumes increased 24% to around 108,900 litres daily. Forecourt Eye will offer Facewatch crime-reporting tech free to more than 2,000 retailers, while the CMA finds no widespread price gouging but is investigating some margin rises.
Nearly £200,000 Of Fuel Stolen Daily From UK Forecourts Since Iran Conflict, Industry Analysis Finds
[PA Media]
UK petrol stations are losing the equivalent of almost £200,000 of fuel every day since the Iran conflict began on 28 February, according to industry analysis by Forecourt Eye. The report links a rise in drive-offs and other non-payment incidents to higher pump prices following disruption to oil supplies in the Middle East.
Key Findings
Forecourt Eye says incidents of fuel being taken without payment increased by about a fifth in the five months after the conflict began, based on a representative sample of 550 forecourts extrapolated to the UK's 8,359 sites. The estimated daily monetary loss rose by 48% compared with the five months before the war, producing an average daily loss of £194,000.
The number of incidents recorded in the sample equates to an estimated 2,872 daily incidents across the UK after the war began, up from roughly 2,400. Measured by volume, stolen fuel increased by 24% — from an estimated 87,000 litres a day to about 108,900 litres a day.
Nature Of The Incidents
Reported incidents include motorists driving off without attempting to pay and customers filling up then claiming they have no means of payment. Forecourt Eye also reports rising levels of abuse, intimidation and violence directed at staff as customers become increasingly frustrated by higher pump prices.
Industry Response
To help tackle the problem, Forecourt Eye will partner with facial-recognition and crime-reporting company Facewatch to provide free access to its technology for more than 2,000 retailers from the autumn, aiming to improve reporting and deterrence.
Prices, Regulation And Reactions
Petrol prices peaked in April after the conflict began, eased briefly when the US and Iran agreed a framework deal in June, and then rose again after the collapse of peace talks. Last week, average petrol prices reached a new high since the Middle East conflict began and were the highest seen since 2022.
The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) said in May it had found no widespread evidence of price gouging in the weeks following the conflict’s outbreak, though it is investigating why fuel margins rose between February and March for two supermarket chains and three non-supermarket retailers. The Chancellor, John Healey, said he would act if there was evidence of price gouging but that there was no significant evidence so far.
Retailers have denied accusations of gouging. The Petrol Retailers Association criticised what it called inflammatory language from politicians, while the British Retail Consortium argued that competition between supermarkets has kept prices as low as possible and pointed to rising costs such as higher National Insurance contributions, increased packaging taxes and business rates as drivers of higher retail fuel prices.
Forecourt Eye: The company also noted a similar rise in fuel thefts after the Russia-Ukraine war began in early 2022, suggesting thefts often increase when wholesale and retail prices spike.
Source: Forecourt Eye analysis; reporting referenced from BBC coverage.
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