Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads a University of New Hampshire early 2028 Democratic poll with 22%, narrowly ahead of Pete Buttigieg at 21%. Kamala Harris registers just 5%, while Gavin Newsom, Mark Kelly and Bernie Sanders each poll under 10%. On the Republican side, J.D. Vance leads at 36% with Marco Rubio at 26%. Kalshi markets show rising odds for Jon Ossoff and shifting probabilities for Ocasio-Cortez and Newsom, and Google searches for Ossoff have spiked sharply.
AOC Surges to Early Lead in New Hampshire 2028 Poll — Buttigieg Close Behind, Harris at 5%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has taken the lead in a new early 2028 New Hampshire poll, while former Vice President Kamala Harris registers minimal support. The University of New Hampshire released the survey on Wednesday, putting Ocasio-Cortez narrowly ahead of former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Poll Results
According to the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, Ocasio-Cortez leads the Democratic field with 22% support, followed closely by Buttigieg at 21%. Kamala Harris recorded just 5%. California Governor Gavin Newsom, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) each polled under 10%.
UNH notes that Ocasio-Cortez's support is concentrated among self-described socialists and progressives, while Buttigieg's backing is more evenly distributed across progressives, liberals and moderates. Beyond the named leaders, no other Democratic contender exceeded 2% in this survey.
Republican Field
On the Republican side, J.D. Vance leads GOP preferences with 36%, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 26%. Other Republican names polled below 10%, led by Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) at 8%.
Methodology and Context
The online survey sampled more than 1,500 respondents between July 15 and July 20, with a reported margin of error of ±2.6%. New Hampshire is an early and high-profile primary state, so these early figures are often treated as an indicator of candidate traction heading into the nominating contest.
Markets and Search Trends
Prediction markets tracked by Kalshi have shifted notably since January: Sen. Jon Ossoff's 2028 chances rose from 5% to 16%, Ocasio-Cortez climbed from 10% to 15%, and Gavin Newsom fell from 35% to 18%. Notably, Ossoff did not appear in the UNH poll despite being one of the Senate's top fundraisers.
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten reported that Google searches for Jon Ossoff reached their highest levels on record, showing roughly a 300% increase this month compared with July 2025.
What It Means
These early snapshots reflect name recognition and current interest rather than settled nomination outcomes. Early-state polls and market moves can change rapidly as candidates make decisions, escalate campaigns or focus on voter outreach. The UNH results underscore rising interest in Ocasio-Cortez among the left flank of the Democratic electorate, while some established figures registered lower support in this snapshot.
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