The Economist/YouGov poll (June 19–22) finds the MOU that ended hostilities with Iran is broadly popular: overall support stands at 32% versus 24% opposition, while key provisions—like a 60-day toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and strong nuclear nonproliferation commitments—each garnered 69% support. However, a proposed $300 billion reconstruction fund drew heavy opposition. Most Americans doubt the deal will hold, and a majority say the decision to go to war was wrong and that U.S. global standing has declined under President Trump.
Polls: MOU and End of Iran War Widely Popular Despite Doubts About Durability
AP News
Operation Epic Fury sharply dented President Trump’s approval ratings, dragging his net approval from -11.4 on the day the war began to -19 by late May. Still, the administration could find political relief if the memorandum of understanding (MOU) that ended hostilities with Iran holds: the deal’s provisions and the cessation of fighting enjoy broad public support.
Public Reaction To The MOU
According to the latest Economist/YouGov poll conducted June 19–22—after the MOU was signed on June 17—32% of respondents said they support the agreement and 24% oppose it. Several specific provisions drew particularly strong backing:
- 60-day toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz: 69% support, 6% oppose.
- Commitment that Iran will not pursue nuclear weapons and will cooperate on disposition of enriched material: 69% support, 8% oppose.
- Lifting sanctions on Iranian crude and unfreezing assets: 41% support, 27% oppose.
- $300 billion reconstruction pledge: 23% support, 46% oppose—the only major provision with greater opposition than support.
Durability Concerns And Regional Tensions
Despite favorable views of many provisions, concerns about the MOU’s longevity are widespread. 81% said it is very or somewhat likely that negotiations will fail and the war could restart; only 19% said a restart is somewhat or very unlikely. In addition, 42% do not expect the Strait of Hormuz to remain open permanently, while only 16% think it will.
After the ceasefire was signed, exchanges of attacks among allies of both sides—despite the MOU explicitly covering Lebanon—briefly threatened the truce. Because Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a separate ceasefire, hostilities have eased overall, though sporadic strikes continue.
Markets Signal Lower Short-Term Risk
Financial markets appear to be pricing in a reduced risk of a full breakdown. On Thursday, Brent crude traded around $73–$75 per barrel, near prewar levels; September Brent futures were also close to $74. Those prices suggest traders expect supply conditions to remain relatively stable over the coming months.
Public View On The War And U.S. Standing
Even if the MOU holds, Americans are broadly negative about the decision to wage the conflict: just 26% said going to war with Iran was the right decision, while 54% said it was wrong. When asked who "won" the war—given the MOU’s terms—25% said the U.S., 22% said Iran, and 41% said neither side won.
Respondents also worry about longer-term consequences for U.S. influence: only 26% said America’s standing in the world has improved since Donald Trump became president in 2026, while 54% said it has worsened. The split follows partisan lines, but independents sided with Democrats: 63% of self-identified independents said America’s standing has declined.
What This Means
The poll shows broad public approval for many specific elements of the MOU and relief from an immediate escalation in oil-market fears. At the same time, deep skepticism about the agreement’s durability and lingering doubts about the wisdom of the war mean political benefits for the administration may be limited unless the MOU is sustained and its pledges are implemented.
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