Mike Lindell leads the Republican primary field for Minnesota governor in a new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll, taking 27% of likely GOP primary support versus Lisa Demuth's 22% and Kendall Qualls' 17%. About 24% of Republican voters remain undecided, and the KSTP survey sampled 450 Republicans (MoE +/- 5.4 points). Separate polls and prediction markets, however, show Democrats with a sizable advantage in hypothetical general-election match-ups, with Amy Klobuchar beating Lindell by wide margins in recent surveys and markets giving Democrats roughly a 90%+ chance of winning Minnesota.
Lindell Leads Minnesota GOP Primary Poll, But Democrats Hold Heavy Advantage In General Election
Left: Mike Lindell speaking outside a federal court in Washington D.C. in 2024. Right: Senator Amy Klobuchar speaking at the NAACP national convention in Detroit in 2019.
A new KSTP/SurveyUSA survey shows MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell leading the Republican field in the race for Minnesota governor, but statewide polling and prediction markets continue to favor Democrats in a general-election matchup.
Primary Poll Results
The KSTP/SurveyUSA poll, conducted June 11–16, found 27% of likely Republican primary voters backing Mike Lindell. State House Speaker Lisa Demuth registered 22%, while Kendall Qualls, who secured the GOP endorsement, was at 17%. About 24% of respondents remained undecided. The survey sampled 450 Republican respondents and reported a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percentage points.
The poll showed notable demographic splits: men were more likely to back Lindell (31% vs. 22% for Demuth and 17% for Qualls), while women were more evenly divided (23% Lindell, 22% Demuth, 18% Qualls). Voters aged 35–49 showed the strongest support for Lindell (35%), whereas Demuth performed best among voters 65 and older (33%).
Other Primary Measures
A Big Data Poll conducted May 18–20 also placed Lindell ahead with 21.3%, versus Demuth at 19.4% and Qualls at 8.8%. That survey interviewed 1,236 registered voters, had a margin of error of +/- 2.8%, and was sponsored by Lindell's campaign.
General-Election Outlook
Despite Lindell's position in the GOP primary polls, Minnesota's general-election landscape currently favors Democrats. Republicans have not won a statewide race in Minnesota since 2006. Recent presidential results also lean Democratic: the state went for Democratic presidential candidates in both 2020 and 2024.
Polling shows Democratic incumbents and potential nominees with comfortable leads in hypothetical match-ups. A Mason-Dixon survey (June 8–10) found Senator Amy Klobuchar leading Lindell 53% to 36%, and leading Demuth and Qualls by similar margins. An Emerson College poll (Feb. 6–8) also showed Klobuchar ahead of Lindell 53% to 31%.
Prediction markets reflect that advantage: Polymarket and Kalshi both gave Democrats roughly a 90%+ chance of winning Minnesota in the current cycle, indicating strong market confidence in a Democratic outcome.
Context And What To Watch
Governor Tim Walz announced he would not seek a third term, opening the field to multiple candidates. Minnesota's primary is scheduled for August 11, 2026. These early surveys show Lindell leading among likely Republican primary voters in some polls, but margins of error, sample sizes, undecided voters, and the party tilt of general-election electorates mean the race remains fluid.
Methodology note: Poll results vary by pollster, sample frame and timing. Sponsored polls and small-sample surveys can skew results; look for additional statewide polling and primary turnout data as the race develops.
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