Flanagan Holds Narrow Lead: A TIPP/League of American Workers poll (Aug. 31–Sept. 2) of 1,201 likely voters finds Peggy Flanagan leading Michele Tafoya 44% to 42%, a difference inside the 3-point margin of error. The registered-voter sample (1,494) shows Flanagan 40% to Tafoya 38%. Both campaigns are targeting undecided voters as the race for the open Minnesota Senate seat tightens; the Cook Political Report rates the contest Likely Democrat.
New Poll Shows Flanagan Narrowly Leading Tafoya in Tight Minnesota Senate Race
Michele Tafoya, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, arrives to vote on Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2026, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Ellen Schmidt)
A new TIPP/League of American Workers poll conducted Aug. 31–Sept. 2 finds Democrat Peggy Flanagan leading Republican Michele Tafoya 44% to 42% among likely Minnesota voters — a margin that falls within the survey's 3-point margin of error and signals a competitive race for the open U.S. Senate seat.
Poll Details
The survey sampled 1,201 likely voters and reported 4% backing other candidates, 2% selecting someone else, and 8% undecided. A separate registered-voter question polled 1,494 people and showed Flanagan ahead 40% to 38% (margin of error 2.7%). The poll was carried out by TIPP in partnership with the League of American Workers, a conservative advocacy organization led by former Trump adviser Steve Cortes; the group is not formally affiliated with the Republican Party.
Campaign Reactions
Flanagan campaign: Spokesperson Lexi Byler told Newsweek that Tafoya would be "nothing but a loyal soldier to Donald Trump" and criticized her positions on immigration, tariffs and other issues. Byler added, "Michele Tafoya is fighting for what Trump wants; Peggy Flanagan is fighting for what working families need."
Tafoya campaign: Tafoya did not provide an emailed comment before publication but posted on X, "Our race is in play! Minnesotans are fed up with billions in taxpayer dollars being stolen... Minnesotans deserve accountability. They deserve leadership. And they deserve better. This race is wide open. Let's win it!"
Context And Trends
The contest is for the seat being vacated by Democratic Senator Tina Smith. The Cook Political Report currently rates the race as Likely Democrat. Earlier polling showed Flanagan with a larger lead, suggesting Tafoya may have narrowed the gap as the general election campaign accelerates. With roughly two months remaining before Election Day, the small margin and undecided voters mean both campaigns remain competitive.
Demographics And Favorability
The poll shows Flanagan performing better with Gen Z and Millennial voters, women, and Black and Hispanic voters. Tafoya leads among voters aged 45 and older, men, and white voters. Both candidates drew 37% support from independent voters.
Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, speaks to supporters during an election night event on Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2026, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Ellen Schmidt)
Favorability ratings in the survey show Flanagan at 39% favorable and 34% unfavorable (28% no opinion). Tafoya posted a 34% favorable rating and a 30% unfavorable rating (36% no opinion).
The survey also asked respondents about Flanagan's position on gender transitions for minors and whether that affected their support; it did not ask a comparable policy question about Tafoya.
Market Forecasts
Market-based forecasts published Monday put Flanagan well ahead: Kalshi gave Flanagan a roughly 90.5% chance of winning versus 9.5% for Tafoya, while Polymarket showed Flanagan around 94% and Tafoya around 8% on the same afternoon.
For now, the latest poll points to a race that remains competitive on the ground despite market models favoring Flanagan; both campaigns are focused on persuading undecided voters who could determine the outcome.
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