A new Public Sentiment Institute poll finds Rep. Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez leading Republican JD Vance 48.4% to 39.6% in a hypothetical 2028 matchup, with 12% undecided. Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris also beat Vance in the same poll. Despite those general‑election figures, Democratic primary tests show Harris as the clear frontrunner while Ocasio‑Cortez trails several rivals. No candidate has formally announced a 2028 run.
Poll: AOC Leads JD Vance 48.4%–39.6% in Hypothetical 2028 Matchup; Harris Tops Democratic Field
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez addresses reporters as she arrives for the final votes of the week at the U.S. Capitol on May 21 in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez leads Republican JD Vance 48.4% to 39.6% in a hypothetical 2028 general election matchup, according to a June poll by The Public Sentiment Institute.
Head‑to‑Head General Election Tests
The Public Sentiment Institute's survey of 1,042 likely voters shows Ocasio‑Cortez ahead by nearly nine points in this head‑to‑head scenario, with 12% of respondents undecided. In the same poll, California Gov. Gavin Newsom led Vance 50.8% to 38.9% (10.3% undecided), and former Vice President Kamala Harris outpaced Vance 49.4% to 38.3% (12.3% undecided). The poll reports a margin of error of ±3%.
In another matchup included in the survey, Ocasio‑Cortez also led Sen. Marco Rubio 46.8% to 38.0%, with 15.2% undecided.
Democratic Primary Outlook
While Ocasio‑Cortez performs strongly in some general‑election scenarios, she trails in Democratic primary tests. In the Public Sentiment Institute poll, just 7.2% of self‑identified Democrats selected Ocasio‑Cortez as their preferred nominee. Harris led that internal contest with 29.2%, followed by Newsom at 15.2% and Pete Buttigieg at 11.3%.
“My ambition is to change this country. Presidents come and go. Senate, House seats, elected officials come and go. But single‑payer healthcare is forever. A living wage is forever, workers’ rights are forever, women’s rights, all of that,” Ocasio‑Cortez said when asked about a 2028 run. She added that she does not want legislative decisions to be made with personal political ambitions in mind.
Other Recent Polls
Separate surveys show similar contours of the race. A Center Square Voters’ Voice poll, conducted by Noble Predictive Insights among 1,013 Democrats June 1–4 (±1.93%), placed Harris at 27%, Newsom at 14%, Buttigieg at 11%, and Ocasio‑Cortez at 8%, with 17% unsure. A Lake Research Partners ranked‑choice simulation from May (800 Democratic primary voters, ±3.5%) showed Harris with 26% in round one and ultimately beating Newsom 52% to 48% in the final round.
Context
Speculation about early positioning for a 2028 contest has persisted since 2025, with multiple polls indicating potentially competitive general‑election matchups between Republicans such as JD Vance and several leading Democrats. No major candidate in these surveys has formally announced a 2028 campaign.
Poll methodology note: The primary poll referenced surveyed 1,042 likely voters in June and reports a margin of error of ±3%. Other polls cited differ in sample size, date and methodology; readers should consider those details when comparing results.
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