Trump’s late endorsement of Ken Paxton has turned Texas from a likely GOP hold into a competitive Senate race. Paxton faces felony fraud charges and lags far behind Democrat James Talarico in fundraising. MAGA Inc. reportedly has about $356 million available but has not publicly committed funds to Paxton, leaving Republicans to weigh whether to divert major resources to defend the seat. The outcome could affect control of the Senate and oversight during the next two years.
Will Trump Back Ken Paxton With His $356M War Chest? Republicans Say Texas Could Be at Risk
FILE PHOTO: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks to supporters after winning the Republican runoff election for U.S. Senate in Texas, defeating incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn, in Plano, Texas, U.S., May 26, 2026. REUTERS/Evan Garcia/File Photo
Republican leaders are urging former President Donald Trump to deploy his large fundraising machine to shore up his controversial pick for the U.S. Senate in Texas: Attorney General Ken Paxton. Paxton's upset primary runoff victory over four-term Senator John Cornyn, secured after Trump’s late endorsement, has transformed what was once a safe Republican hold into a competitive race.
Why This Race Matters
Texas — a state Trump carried by nearly 14 points in 2024 — is expensive and complicated to defend: it spans 20 television media markets and demands heavy spending to win statewide. Paxton now faces Democratic state Representative James Talarico, who reported raising $40 million through March and had $9.9 million cash on hand. By comparison, Paxton reported $7.6 million raised through May 6 and just $2.3 million in the bank.
Legal Troubles and Political Fallout
Paxton, who has been indicted on felony fraud charges and was impeached by the Texas House (he denies wrongdoing), has become a polarizing nominee. Some GOP operatives blame Trump's endorsement for creating a closer-than-expected contest and for forcing national Republicans to consider diverting substantial resources that were planned for other battlegrounds.
'There is no doubt that Ken Paxton needs outside money to help him win this race,' said a Texas political operative.
Where Big Money Stands
Trump's super PAC, MAGA Inc., reportedly has roughly $356 million available, but it has not publicly committed funds to Paxton. MAGA Inc. spent nearly $377 million to support Trump's 2024 campaign and has put $1.7 million into two House special elections this cycle. The Senate Leadership Fund plans to spend about $342 million this fall in battleground states but has not included Texas in its announced strategy.
Some expect MAGA Inc. to step in — or for Texas Governor Greg Abbott to provide assistance. Abbott's political committee, Texans for Greg Abbott, reported nearly $96 million in cash on hand in February, though Abbott's team has not confirmed whether it will directly bankroll Paxton.
Broader Stakes
Republicans now defend a narrow 53-47 Senate majority. Losing an unexpectedly competitive Texas seat would complicate Republican efforts to hold the chamber and could affect oversight and confirmations during the remainder of a second Trump term. Senate Republicans interviewed for this story expressed reluctance to publicly direct Trump's spending decisions, while some rank-and-file members say they expect him to support the candidate he endorsed.
'I won't begin to tell the president what he should do,' said Senator John Curtis of Utah. 'That's his funding. That's his decision.'
With a June 9 Texas Pulse poll showing the race tied, Paxton's path to victory appears to hinge on whether national GOP money — from MAGA Inc., Senate-aligned groups, or state actors like Abbott — will be deployed in force before November.
(Editing by Deepa Babington)
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