Ken Paxton Tops GOP Senate Primary Polls — Can His Controversies Cost Republicans the Seat?

Ken Paxton, Texas attorney general for 12 years, is leading the race for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination despite a string of legal and personal controversies that have shadowed his tenure. As Paxton seeks to unseat Sen. John Cornyn, the contest has become a high-stakes test for both parties — and a potential factor in control of the U.S. Senate.

Early voters for the primaries stand in line in Dallas on February 17, 2026. - LM Otero/AP

Controversies and Legal Battles

Paxton’s record includes an impeachment by the Texas House (the state Senate declined to convict him), a securities-fraud investigation that ended in a settlement, and a widely publicized marital split after his wife — herself a state senator and longtime adviser — accused him of adultery and filed for divorce on "biblical grounds." He has also filed roughly 150 lawsuits against the Obama and Biden administrations combined, winning him praise from conservative activists for challenging federal authority.

Ken Paxton points during a campaign event at The Angry Elephant in Magnolia, Texas, on Thursday, February 19, 2026. - Mark Felix/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Campaign Landscape

Polls show Paxton leading the March 3 Republican primary: a University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs survey puts him at 38% among likely GOP primary voters, with Cornyn at 31%, U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt at 17% and 12% undecided. If no candidate exceeds 50% on March 3, the top two advance to a May 26 runoff.

Ken Paxton departs following a campaign event at The Angry Elephant in Magnolia, Texas, on Thursday, February 19, 2026. - Mark Felix/Bloomberg/Getty Images

On the airwaves and fundraising, Cornyn holds a decisive advantage. Ad tracking firm AdImpact reports that groups backing Cornyn have reserved $58.9 million of the $92.8 million in ad buys so far, while spending on Paxton-backed ads is about $2.3 million. Major conservative funders who previously supported Paxton — most notably Midland oil-and-gas magnate Tim Dunn — have not been active on his behalf this cycle, though Paxton recently received an endorsement from Turning Point Action.

General-Election Stakes

Paxton’s nomination would reshape the Democrats’ map: Texas is more expensive to contest than many of their top targets, but some Democrats believe Paxton would be a more vulnerable fall opponent than Cornyn. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to claim a majority, and a competitive Texas race could alter national strategic calculations — if Democrats are willing to invest heavily.

"For every one of those Democrats who’s hoping for him to win, I hope they’re willing to invest hundreds of millions of dollars into the state to fight him," said Rochelle Garza, the 2022 Democratic nominee for attorney general. "I cannot underscore enough how dangerous it will be to have him as a senator from this state."

How Supporters View Him

At a rally northwest of Houston, Paxton framed his record as defending Texas against federal overreach and urged supporters to dismiss negative ads. Supporters described him as a fighter who delivers results and stands up for conservative values, even as some GOP primary voters voiced concerns that his "baggage" could make him a weaker general-election nominee.

Bottom Line

Paxton remains a potent force in Texas politics: a proven statewide vote-getter who has energized a conservative base, even as fundraising gaps and persistent controversies complicate his general-election prospects. Whether national Republicans will double down to back him — and whether Democrats will invest heavily if he wins the nomination — will shape not only this Senate contest but potentially control of the Senate itself.