Venezuela officially holds more than 300 billion barrels of oil—more than Saudi Arabia or Iran—but tapping that resource faces major hurdles. After U.S. forces captured President Nicolás Maduro, President Trump said the U.S. would assume control and position U.S. companies to operate the nationalized oil sector. Analysts say security, damaged infrastructure, legal questions and sanctions must be resolved; a peaceful transition could raise production in five to seven years, though significant risks remain.
Venezuela’s 300+ Billion Barrels: Can U.S. Control Unlock Production?
Venezuelan oil reserves: How much is there?
Venezuela's officially estimated oil reserves exceed 300 billion barrels—more than any other country—but whether those resources can be developed at scale depends on politics, security and massive infrastructure repair.
Military Operation And U.S. Claims
President Donald Trump said the United States would assume control of Venezuela's reserves and effectively "run" the country after U.S. special forces captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, overnight. The couple are now in the United States and face federal drug-related charges. Trump also said U.S. companies would take operational control of Venezuela's battered but potentially lucrative oil sector, which Caracas nationalized in the 1970s.
Barriers To Investment
Analysts say any company considering investment in Venezuela must first contend with severe security risks, dilapidated energy infrastructure, doubts about the legality of the U.S. operation that removed Maduro, and the possibility of prolonged political instability.
"American companies won’t return until they are confident they will be paid and have at least a basic level of security," said Mark Christian, director of business development at CHRIS Well Consulting.
Christian added that private firms would also be reluctant to return while international sanctions remain in place.
"If Trump et al. can deliver a peaceful transition with minimal resistance, then in five to seven years we could see a meaningful increase in oil production as infrastructure is repaired and investment is organised," said Thomas O’Donnell, an energy and geopolitical strategist. He cautioned that such a recovery would require many things to go right and that there are numerous risks that could derail the process.
Outlook And Historical Context
Venezuela—one of OPEC's founding members—produced as much as 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in the 1970s, more than 7% of global output at the time. Production declined sharply over subsequent decades, falling below 2 million bpd in the 2010s and averaging about 1.1 million bpd last year (roughly 1% of world production). Restoring output would require not only capital but also sustained security, legal clarity and international cooperation to lift sanctions and attract experienced operators.
Any near-term increases in production hinge on political stability, the removal or restructuring of sanctions, verified property and contract rights, and comprehensive repairs to refineries, pipelines and service capacity. Reuters contributed to this report.
Help us improve.
