Taiwan Eyes Diplomatic Comeback in Honduras — Potential Boost for Shrimp and Coffee

Taiwanese traders and exporters are watching Honduras's presidential vote closely after the Central American nation cut diplomatic ties with Taipei in 2023. The break — followed by a cancelled free trade agreement and the imposition of tariffs — sharply reduced Honduran seafood and coffee exports to Taiwan, but a potential reversal by a new Honduran administration could revive those markets.

Trade Impact

Imports of Honduran shrimp into Taiwan plunged from roughly 13,000 tonnes in 2022 to nearly 4,000 tonnes in 2024, according to Taiwanese statistics. A 20% tariff introduced after Tegucigalpa switched recognition to Beijing made Honduran seafood considerably less competitive, reducing volumes to "the odd container or two" for some Taiwanese importers.

Voices From Business

Jay Yen, head of the family-run Yens seafood company in Taipei, said restoring ties would widen sourcing options and benefit consumers. "For us, we would have more choices to source white shrimp... And the end consumer will have more choices," Yen told AFP.

Javier Amador of Honduras's National Association of Aquaculturists said the shift to China cost tens of thousands of jobs as firms closed and noted that shipments to Taiwan had historically been more than six times those to China, even accounting for tariff disadvantages.

Political Signals and Caution

Presidential hopefuls Nasry Asfura and Salvador Nasralla have both signalled support for restoring formal ties with Taipei, and campaign rhetoric has reflected frustration with perceived shortfalls from engagement with China. "Taiwan has been our great ally for more than 60 years. What has China given us?" Nasralla asked on the campaign trail.

Nevertheless, Taipei is proceeding carefully. Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said Taiwan is taking "a proactive and open attitude" and confirmed contacts with both campaigns while stressing any engagement must be mutually beneficial.

Analysts warn the candidates' pledges could be leverage in negotiations. "If China senses they are really serious, then, of course, there might be many offers that China can make," said Fabricio Fonseca, associate professor at National Chengchi University in Taipei. He added that the United States could also influence the outcome if it chose to support Taiwan's diplomatic efforts.

Beyond Shrimp: Coffee And Market Access

Honduran coffee trader Elias Argueta, who lives in Taiwan and imports beans from family farms, said the diplomatic break made it harder to attract new buyers because official promotion channels closed. "If relations are restored, people will be more open to take Honduran coffee, and definitely the official channels will open again here in Taiwan," he said, citing the quality of Honduran beans.

Outlook

Industry representatives caution that rebuilding trade ties would not be instantaneous. Even if diplomatic relations were restored and a free trade agreement renegotiated, Yen estimated a realistic recovery window of six months to a year for exporters and supply chains to restart in earnest.

Reporting by AFP. Contributors and quotations cited in the original reporting are noted where used.