The IEA projects global coal demand will reach a record 8.85 billion tonnes this year, up 0.5% despite mixed regional trends. U.S. coal use is expected to climb about 8% due to higher gas prices and slower plant retirements, while the EU leaned more on coal after weaker wind and hydro output. India generated less coal-fired power thanks to an early, intense monsoon, and the IEA expects global coal use to level off and begin falling around 2030 as renewables expand.
IEA: Global Coal Demand To Reach Record 8.85 Billion Tons This Year; Expected To Peak Before Falling By 2030
Blacksmith's coal lies in a mobile forge. Global coal demand is expected to reach a new record high this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast on Wednesday, despite diverging regional trends in consumption. Matthias Bein/dpa
The International Energy Agency (IEA) says global coal consumption is set to hit a new record this year, reaching an estimated 8.85 billion tonnes — a rise of about 0.5% from last year — despite divergent trends across regions.
United States: After years of decline, U.S. coal demand is projected to increase by roughly 8% this year. The IEA attributes the rebound to higher natural gas prices and a slowdown in the retirement of coal-fired power plants during the Trump administration, which has delayed the shift away from coal in some parts of the power sector.
European Union: Coal consumption in the EU contracted in 2025, but by much less than in the two previous years. Reduced wind and hydropower output in the first half of the year pushed utilities to rely more on coal-fired generation to meet demand.
India: Contrary to the usual trend of driving global coal growth, India is expected to have generated less electricity from coal this year. An unusually early and intense monsoon eased overall electricity demand and boosted hydropower output, reducing the need for coal-fired generation.
Outlook Through 2030
Looking ahead, the IEA expects global coal use to plateau over the next few years and then begin to decline around 2030 as renewable energy capacity — particularly in China — expands rapidly. China’s coal demand is forecast to ease modestly by 2030, while India is still expected to register the largest increase in coal consumption in the years ahead, driven by rising power needs and slower replacement of existing thermal capacity.
Bottom line: Coal demand is at a near-term high, shaped by short-term market and weather conditions, but the medium-term trajectory points to a flattening and eventual decline as renewables grow.
