New calculations suggest a major solar storm could disable global satellite operations in roughly 2.8–3 days under current orbital congestion. Low Earth orbit now holds about 14,000 satellites, far more than the roughly 4,000 in 2018, reducing the time before a cascading collision sequence could begin. The study — not yet peer reviewed — also warns a 24-hour loss of control carries about a 30% chance of triggering Kessler Syndrome, and notes that a Carrington-scale storm today could cause continent-wide blackouts and prolonged recovery times.
Warning: Major Solar Storm Could Cripple Global Satellite Network in Just 2.8–3 Days
Researchers warn that a severe solar storm could disable global satellite operations in as little as 2.8 days, according to new calculations published in a paper that has not yet undergone peer review. The analysis highlights growing vulnerability in an increasingly crowded Low Earth Orbit (LEO).
What the Study Found
Rapid cascade risk: The study models a scenario in which a strong solar event disrupts ground-to-satellite communications and control. Without timely operator intervention, collisions among satellites could trigger a rapid, cascading chain reaction of debris (the so-called Kessler Syndrome) that renders large orbital zones unusable.
Time to catastrophe: Authors estimate a catastrophic cascade could begin in as little as 2.8 days under current orbital congestion — a dramatic reduction from roughly 121 days estimated for 2018 conditions, reflecting the sharp rise in satellites in LEO.
Context And Consequences
LEO now contains roughly 14,000 active satellites, up from about 4,000 in 2018. Much of the growth has been driven by large constellations such as SpaceX’s Starlink, increasing the frequency of close approaches and the reliance on active collision-avoidance maneuvers.
The paper also finds that even a shorter outage could be dangerous: a 24-hour interruption of control carries an estimated ~30% chance of initiating a damaging cascade. If such a sequence occurred, it could disrupt satellite-dependent services including GPS, satellite communications and Earth observation, and could make portions of space hazardous to access for years.
Natural Causes And Historical Precedent
We are currently near a solar maximum, a period of heightened solar activity. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with strong solar storms can disable radio links and damage ground infrastructure. The article cites the 1859 Carrington Event — the strongest recorded solar storm — when auroras were seen unusually far south and telegraph systems were disrupted. A Carrington-scale event today could damage power grids and critical infrastructure, possibly causing wide-area blackouts and long repair times.
Caveats And Next Steps
Peer-review status: The results come from a preprint and have not been peer reviewed, so further validation and replication are needed. Model assumptions (for example, how quickly operators could regain control and how debris behaves) strongly influence the outcome.
Mitigation: The study underscores the need for improved space-weather forecasting, resilient satellite command systems, more robust international operational protocols, and debris-mitigation strategies to reduce collision risk as orbit becomes more congested.
Bottom line: The research raises a plausible and urgent scenario: a sufficiently large solar storm that severs control links could, under current orbital conditions, set off a damaging cascade within days. Policymakers, operators, and scientists say enhanced preparedness and international coordination are essential to reduce that risk.
