The Crash Clock metric shows an unavoidable collision could occur in as little as 2.8 days if satellite maneuvering systems failed, down from 121 days in 2018. Rapid growth of megaconstellations such as Starlink and rising solar activity have sharply increased collision risk and the chance of a cascading debris event (Kessler Syndrome). Authors urge coordinated traffic management, stronger debris mitigation and improved space-weather resilience to protect critical services.
Crash Clock: Study Warns Earth's Orbit Could Face Catastrophe Within Days As Megaconstellations Multiply
The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launches 29 Starlink satellites on mission 6-87 at 10:21 p.m. EST from Launch Complex 40 at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida. (Photo Credit: Joe Marino/UPI | License Photo)
A new analysis using the warning metric known as the Crash Clock warns that Earth's low-Earth orbit is approaching a critical breaking point. Researchers found that if satellite operators suddenly lost the ability to maneuver, an unavoidable catastrophic collision could occur in as little as 2.8 days — a dramatic drop from roughly 121 days in 2018. The change underscores how rapidly orbital congestion has increased with the rise of megaconstellations.
What the Crash Clock Measures
The Crash Clock estimates how long it would take before a collision becomes inevitable if automated collision-avoidance systems, tracking networks or communications links failed. It is a diagnostic tool that highlights how little margin for error remains in the crowded orbital environment — not a prediction of a specific imminent event.
Why Risk Has Risen
Commercial megaconstellations — including SpaceX's Starlink — have sharply increased the number of active satellites in low-Earth orbit. With well over 10,000 satellites either launched or planned for some constellations, the frequency of close approaches has soared. Because satellites travel at roughly 17,500 mph, even a single failure of collision-avoidance safeguards can produce high-energy impacts that spawn clouds of debris.
An X5.1 solar flare seen by NOAA satellite on Nov. 11, 2025. (Image: NOAA)
Space Weather Makes It Worse
Solar storms and elevated space-weather activity increase atmospheric drag, pulling satellites to lower altitudes and forcing operators to perform avoidance maneuvers more frequently. A major solar event, a ground-station outage, or failures in automated systems could quickly degrade maneuvering and tracking — transforming congestion into a serious collision hazard.
Potential Consequences on Earth
A cascading debris event (known as Kessler Syndrome) could damage or destroy satellites that provide GPS, communications, weather forecasting, aviation routing, emergency coordination and the precise timing signals used by financial networks. Recovering a stable orbital environment after a severe debris cascade would be difficult, expensive and time-consuming.
Recommended Actions
Study authors and industry experts call for stronger international coordination and real-time traffic management, better debris mitigation and removal practices, stricter end-of-life disposal rules, and improved space-weather forecasting and resilient satellite design. In short, protecting critical infrastructure in space will require cooperative policy, operational transparency, and technical upgrades across the ecosystem.
Bottom line: The Crash Clock is a stark reminder that orbital safety is a shared responsibility — with present-day margin for error measured in days rather than months.
