Trump’s Decision Looms As Stefanik–Blakeman Primary Threatens New York GOP

ALBANY, New York — New York Republicans are heading toward a potentially bruising gubernatorial primary between Rep. Elise Stefanik and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, and President Donald Trump has so far declined to pick a clear side.

Why Trump Matters

Some state GOP officials say only Trump has the influence to short-circuit a contested primary in his native state. Publicly, the president has praised both candidates — calling them "two fantastic people" and saying, "I hope there's not a lot of damage done" — but he has not issued an endorsement. Reports in The New York Times and New York magazine say Trump spoke with Blakeman before the county executive announced his run, though POLITICO sources say the conversation did not include an explicit instruction to stand down. The White House declined to comment.

What’s at Stake

Gov. Kathy Hochul currently leads in polls, and New York’s top-of-ticket contest will shape competitive House races across the state. Republicans have not won a statewide race since 2002, and party leaders warn a bitter primary could hamper the GOP’s chances of unseating Hochul and improving down-ballot prospects.

Convention, Petitioning And The Ballot

Republicans are watching the February state convention as a possible way to avert a primary. If a candidate fails to reach a 25% threshold among convention delegates, they must petition to appear on the June primary ballot. Stefanik’s campaign says it controls roughly 77% of the convention’s weighted vote and expects to deny Blakeman automatic placement; Blakeman’s team declined to say whether it will mount a petition drive. Petitioning is costly and time-consuming but has precedent — Carl Paladino used it in 2010 to secure a Republican nomination.

Candidates And Strategies

Stefanik, 41, rose to national prominence through fierce loyalty to Trump and has built a campaign centered on attacking Hochul. Her name recognition is significantly higher than Blakeman’s.

Blakeman, 70, has a longer record in local and regional offices, including a stint as a Port Authority commissioner. He positions himself as a pragmatic suburban executive and describes himself as a pro-choice Republican — a stance that may complicate his appeal to social conservatives but could broaden his general-election reach.

Implications For The GOP

Party operatives worry a closed primary could push the eventual nominee to the right to win a conservative base, potentially making the ticket less competitive statewide. Some New York Republicans are urging Trump to weigh in privately or publicly to prevent a bruising fight; others expect the president to allow the contest to unfold.

"A primary doesn’t help us at all, but I think at the end of the day the president is going to have to weigh in," said Assemblymember Josh Jensen, who backs Stefanik.

Possible Outcomes

There are three main paths forward: Trump could endorse and effectively clear the field; the state convention could produce a decisive favorite and avoid a wide primary; or the contest could proceed to a pitched primary and a costly petition fight. Each outcome carries different risks for Republican unity and general-election competitiveness against Hochul.

With control of Congress still on the line and New York holding several competitive House districts, the decision over whether to force or prevent a primary has implications beyond the governor’s mansion — and places Trump squarely at the center of the state’s GOP drama.

Bill Mahoney contributed to this report.