Decoding the Tropics: How MacArthur Fellow Ángel Adames Is Rewriting Tropical Meteorology

When 2025 MacArthur Fellow Ángel Francisco Adames Corraliza speaks about tropical meteorology, his tone blends deep respect with contagious curiosity. He argues that while meteorology in higher latitudes is relatively well understood, the tropics — home to nearly four billion people — remain poorly characterized, despite their outsized influence on global weather.

From Puerto Rico to the MacArthur Fellowship

Adames traces his passion to childhood in San Sebastián, Puerto Rico. “I grew up in the tropics,” he says. “We experience tropical weather as part of our day-to-day living — the clouds, afternoon thunderstorms, tropical waves.” A defining moment came in 1998 when Hurricane Georges struck: “My parents’ house was shaking from the winds. You could hear things falling.” That night reframed his relationship with nature and set him on a path to understand extreme tropical weather.

Adames learned he had been named a MacArthur Fellow during what he expected to be an ordinary video call — a surprise he describes as surreal and humbling. The MacArthur Foundation awards unrestricted grants to individuals deemed to have exceptional creativity and potential. For Adames, the fellowship strengthened his resolve to translate fundamental research into practical improvements for tropical forecasting.

Moisture: A Simple Ingredient With Complex Effects

Much of Adames’ research zeroes in on a deceptively simple element: moisture. He emphasizes the crucial role of humidity at high altitudes in the tropics. "That humidity, especially at elevation, can be of incredible importance for tropical phenomena in a way that it is just not for mid-latitude meteorology," he explains. In short, moisture does more than fuel storms — it helps determine their structure, propagation and intensity.

Reframing the Madden–Julian Oscillation

One focus of Adames’ work is the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), a vast traveling band of enhanced convection and moisture that moves along the equator. The MJO influences floods, provides a breeding ground for tropical cyclones and can affect weather far from the tropics, including atmospheric rivers that impact places like California. Adames helped reframe understanding of the MJO by centering atmospheric humidity: moisture is not merely a byproduct but a controlling factor in the MJO's behavior.

Implications for Climate Change and Forecasting

Adames warns that even modest warming can substantially increase atmospheric moisture. “Warming a little bit actually increases moisture by a lot,” he says, which will alter the relationship between moisture and rainfall. That shift could strengthen the MJO, increase flood risk, and change how hurricanes develop and intensify. Predicting those changes requires a clear understanding of the core processes that drive tropical phenomena.

“A lot of the work that we do is wrong, ultimately, and that's progress,” Adames says. “Us learning that we're wrong, and the new ideas that come up that are better, are the way that we progress as scientists.”

With MacArthur support, Adames plans to expand theoretical models that capture how moisture, equatorial waves and warming interact across the tropics. His goal is to sharpen seasonal forecasts, improve predictions of extreme rainfall events and provide tools that help communities prepare for a changing climate.

Why It Matters

Adames sees his work as more than academic: better understanding tropical dynamics can lead to more accurate, actionable forecasts for nearly four billion people who live where tropical weather dominates daily life. “People deserve to know what makes their atmosphere different,” he says.

By Jenn Jordan, Weather.com lead editor — exploring how weather and climate shape our lives and communities.