Crime Wave Boosts Hard‑Right Front‑Runner Jose Antonio Kast Ahead Of Chile Runoff

Anxiety over immigration and a rise in violent crime have pushed Jose Antonio Kast to the brink of Chile's presidency, with many analysts expecting him to win Sunday's runoff and become the country's first hard‑right leader since Augusto Pinochet.

Speaking from behind bulletproof glass, Kast has promised to deport hundreds of thousands of undocumented migrants, seal the northern border and declare a state of emergency if elected. Those proposals have resonated with voters who point to the growing presence of transnational gangs as a cause of escalating organised crime.

Operation Colombia: Police launched "Operation Colombia" after a six‑month investigation into an international drug ring. Shortly after 6:00pm local time (2300 GMT), dozens of masked, armed officers poured from a 15‑vehicle convoy of unmarked cars and forced entry into nine suspected drug houses, seizing drugs and making multiple arrests. The raids, broadcast live by television crews, underscored the public visibility of security operations.

Erick Menay, who heads the Investigative Police's organised crime unit, said his work has been transformed by the arrival of sophisticated and often violent gangs from Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela, including networks linked to Tren de Aragua. "Their turf fights have brought a lot of violence; they have brought many gunshots, many victims and much insecurity," he told AFP.

Statistics, Perception And The Political Debate

Official figures show violence tied to organised crime has risen roughly 40% over the past 25 years, while United Nations data indicate the homicide rate has increased by about 50% in the same period. Yet other indicators complicate a simple narrative of nationwide collapse: a recent government survey found that although 88% of Chileans believe crime has increased in the last year, fewer than 6% of people reported being victims of violent crime.

Police data suggest rates of certain violent offences have stabilised or even declined in some categories. Hassel Barrientos Hermosilla, head of the Investigative Police's anti‑kidnap and extortion unit, told AFP that high‑profile kidnappings and extortions typically target migrants within their own communities — Peruvian gangs often prey on Peruvians, and Venezuelan groups frequently target Venezuelans — rather than native Chileans.

"It is evident that perception, what people feel with respect to security, is very distant from reality," said Christian Bolivar, a former army general who runs municipal security in Las Condes, an affluent Santiago suburb.

Bolivar, who oversees 450 officers and a modern control centre monitoring CCTV across eastern Santiago, warned that fear can create a vicious cycle: as people avoid public spaces, streets empty and perceived insecurity feeds real declines in safety. He called public perception the hardest challenge to address, saying law enforcement can improve statistics but reaching "people's minds" is far more difficult.

Media Coverage And Public Fear

There are signs that live media coverage may amplify public alarm. A recent UDP‑Feedback poll found television viewers were 25% more likely than newspaper readers to say violent crime was a major problem. Even modest drug seizures can appear dramatic on live TV, reinforcing a narrative of lawlessness.

In a raid in a Santiago neighbourhood nicknamed "Little Caracas," officers detained two young women and a teenage boy and seized several kilograms of suspected cocaine and other drugs. In many countries that would be considered a relatively small haul — but the presence of multiple TV crews meant the arrests were televised live, feeding public perceptions of escalating crime.

As Chileans weigh fears of rising crime and migration against economic and social priorities, security has become the defining issue of the runoff campaign — even as officials and analysts urge a more nuanced reading of statistics and risk.

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