Poll: Buttigieg Gets 4% Support From Black Voters — Lower Than David Duke's 2016 Share

A new Fall 2025 Yale Youth Poll shows former U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg receiving just 4% support from Black voters if the 2028 Democratic presidential primary were held today — a lower share than the 14% reported for former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke after his 2016 U.S. Senate campaign announcement.

Key Findings

The Yale Youth Poll places Kamala Harris far ahead among Black Democratic voters at 47%, followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 12% and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 9%. Buttigieg ranks among the least popular potential Democratic choices with Black respondents, though he polls ahead of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (0%) and former Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (1%).

Buttigieg receives his strongest support from older Democrats: 18% of respondents aged 65 and over said they would back him for president.

Republican Preferences

On the Republican side, the poll finds Vice President J.D. Vance commanding majority support at 51% for a prospective 2028 bid. Other Republican figures ranked by support are Donald Trump Jr. (8%), Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (6%), former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley (5%), Senator Marco Rubio (5%), and a tie between Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Tucker Carlson (3% each). Carlson is the second-most popular Republican among the youngest voters surveyed (ages 18–22), behind Vance.

Reaction And Context

Social media users quickly noted and circulated the comparison to Duke’s 2016 figures, prompting debate and surprise. The Yale Youth Poll, which focuses on younger and emerging electorates, produced results that have drawn attention because of how they contrast historical and contemporary responses among Black voters.

Note: Polls capture a snapshot of opinions at a specific time and among specific samples; they do not predict final outcomes. The Yale Youth Poll results reflect hypothetical preferences if a 2028 Democratic primary were held today and should be interpreted with that context in mind.