Why Cyber Monday Could Set New Online Spending Records Despite Economic Headwinds

Retailers' deep discounts and entrenched online shopping habits are expected to keep Americans glued to phones and computers as the post-Thanksgiving sales surge culminates in Cyber Monday. Analysts say strong traffic and generous markdowns could push U.S. online spending to fresh highs even as broader economic uncertainty lingers.

Big numbers and what they mean

Adobe Analytics projects U.S. consumers will spend $14.2 billion online on Cyber Monday, a 6.3% increase from 2024. So far this holiday period shoppers have already spent $11.8 billion on Black Friday and $6.4 billion on Thanksgiving Day, both surpassing earlier estimates. How much consumers put on their cards during Cyber Week — the five key shopping days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday — often signals how the broader holiday season will perform.

“Cyber Week is off to a strong start,” said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights. “Discounts are set to remain elevated through Cyber Monday, which we expect to be the biggest online shopping day of the season and the year.”

Discounts, mobile and buy-now-pay-later

Adobe's forecasts show average markdowns peaking on Monday at roughly 30% for electronics and 26% for apparel. Mobile devices continue to dominate holiday shopping: Adobe expects smartphones, wearables and other handhelds to account for 56.1% of online spending this season — about $142.7 billion. Meanwhile, buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) plans are rising in popularity; Adobe estimates BNPL will drive $20.2 billion in online spending this season, up 11% from last year, and pass a $1 billion milestone on Cyber Monday.

Why record totals might be misleading

Part of any record-setting total may reflect genuine bargain hunting, but higher retail prices and broader economic pressures can also inflate headline sales figures. Households and businesses are closely watching the effects of tariffs on imports, mounting credit-card balances and rising delinquencies on short-term loans. Workers in both the private and public sectors face anxieties related to layoffs and disruptions from a recent extended government shutdown.

AI, hot sellers and the bigger picture

Artificial intelligence is shaping purchase decisions: Salesforce estimated AI assistants and digital agents influenced $14.2 billion of the $79 billion it attributed to global Black Friday online spending. Popular Cyber Monday items are expected to include gaming consoles such as the Nintendo Switch 2, trendy toys like Labubu Dolls, and the latest smartphones including the iPhone 17, Google Pixel 10 and Samsung Galaxy S25.

For the November–December season overall, the National Retail Federation expects U.S. consumer spending to top $1 trillion for the first time, though growth is slowing: the group forecasts a 3.7% to 4.2% year-over-year gain compared with 4.3% last year. What began as a single day of heavy online buying has expanded into a weeklong cluster of promotions that retailers now use to drive year-end sales.