House Control Could Turn on a Handful of Special Elections After Greene’s January Resignation

It all comes down to arithmetic. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene announced she will resign in January, sharpening an already narrow margin in the House of Representatives and putting several upcoming special elections into the spotlight.

Current math and what’s at stake

With the House currently reported at 219 Republicans to 213 Democrats and three vacancies, the GOP’s working majority is thin: it can afford no more than two defections on the floor and still pass legislation without Democratic support. That margin can shift quickly as special elections play out and vacant seats are filled.

Key upcoming contests and timeline

Several special elections are scheduled or likely in the months ahead, each with the potential to change the balance:

• Dec. 2 (Tennessee) — A special election to replace the retiring Republican incumbent. Republicans are widely expected to hold the seat, but special-election dynamics can produce surprising results.
• Jan. (Greene seat) — Greene’s resignation takes effect on Jan. 5. The special election to fill her Georgia seat is not expected until March, leaving the majority vulnerable during that interval.
• Jan. 31 (January runoff) — A runoff is scheduled to fill another vacant Democratic seat; because two Democrats remain in that contest, it is favored to stay in Democratic hands, but timing and procedural decisions could affect when the new member is seated.
• Spring (New Jersey special) — A seat vacated by a Democrat who resigned after winning a state office is expected to be decided in the spring; Democrats are favored but special contests can be competitive.

Why special elections matter

Special elections often have lower turnout and unusual dynamics, and they can act as a barometer of political momentum. Close results in special contests have presaged broader shifts in past cycles: strong performances by one party can foreshadow gains in later midterms, while surprisingly weak showings can spook the incumbent party.

Possible scenarios

Depending on outcomes, the House could look very different by spring. Scenarios include:

• If Republicans hold the December Tennessee seat and retain other seats they are expected to keep, the GOP would regain breathing room once special elections conclude—potentially returning to a 220-seat majority if outcomes align with expectations.
• If Democrats flip one or more open seats (for example in Tennessee or Georgia) and hold their own special-election targets, the Republican edge could shrink to the low single digits or even to a 218-217 margin.
• Unexpected resignations, delays in swearing in winners, or other contingencies could further tighten the arithmetic.

Bottom line

The GOP’s current majority is one of the slimmest in recent history, and a handful of special-election outcomes — combined with timing and procedural choices about when winners are sworn in — could determine which party controls the House. For now, the story is the fragility of power: a few votes and a few ballots could change the chamber’s trajectory for the coming year.