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“Just Atrocious!” Data Analyst Calls Recent Polls the ‘Worst 10-Day Period’ of Trump’s Second Term — Independents Down 43 Points

12:18 AM, 11/22/2025

Harry Enten warned that a recent run of polls may mark the worst 10-day stretch of President Trump’s second term in the polls. November surveys show Trump between 14 and 26 points underwater across several national polls, and independents average 43 points against him. Enten said those deficits, if sustained, could put Republican control of both the House and Senate at risk in 2026.

Harry Enten, a leading data analyst, warned Friday that a string of recent polls represents possibly the worst 10-day stretch for President Donald Trump in his second term. Enten described the numbers as “atrocious” and said they could jeopardize Republican majorities if the trends persist into the 2026 midterms.

Poll snapshot

Enten highlighted November surveys that show Trump well behind across multiple national polls: the Marquette University Law School poll places him 14 points underwater; Fox and Marist each show him 17 points down; Reuters/Ipsos shows him 22 points down; and the AP-NORC survey reports him 26 points underwater. Enten stressed that when even the best poll leaves the president 14 points behind, the overall picture is dire.

Independents are decisive

Enten pointed to independent voters as the main driver of the decline. He noted that Trump’s net approval with independents in January was roughly even (around minus four points), but the most recent average now shows him 43 points underwater among that group. In his words:

“When you have 43 points under water with independents, you know you’re doing terribly. You can’t win with this. If this holds for next year’s midterm election, wave 'Adios, amigos' to that House Republican majority — and the Senate majority is very much in danger as well.”

Why it matters

Enten summarized that Trump’s standing with independents is the decisive problem: “Whatever he is doing with independents, it ain’t working. They despise him at this point!” If these numbers remain steady, they could cost the GOP seats in both the House and Senate in 2026.

Source: Harry Enten, chief data analyst (remarks summarized and edited for clarity).

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