Mikhail Kasyanov, Russia's prime minister from 2000 to 2004, told AFP that Vladimir Putin likely recognises the 2022 invasion of Ukraine as a mistake but cannot admit it and will press on. Kasyanov warned that high oil prices and transatlantic divisions have strengthened Putin's resolve and urged Western unity and urgent delivery of Patriot missile interceptors to protect Ukraine's skies. He described Russia's political climate as increasingly totalitarian and cautioned that new mass mobilisations could trigger protests.
Ex-PM Kasyanov: Putin Won’t Admit 2022 Ukraine 'Mistake' and Is Likely to Press On
Mikhail Kasyanov was Vladimir Putin's first prime minister
Former Russian prime minister Mikhail Kasyanov told AFP in Paris that, despite growing economic strain and unease among both ordinary Russians and elements of the elite, President Vladimir Putin is not prepared to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.
Kasyanov, who served as prime minister from 2000 to 2004 and is now 68, said he believed Putin understood that the 2022 invasion was a mistake but could not admit it and would continue the course he had set.
'He made a mistake that he cannot bring himself to admit,' Kasyanov said. 'He believed the reports from his security services that Ukraine was weak.'
The former premier warned he was not confident the conflict would end next year, saying Putin felt bolstered by high oil prices tied to the US-Iran tensions and by divisions between the United States and Europe over how to handle the Kremlin.
'Putin is, of course, rubbing his hands with glee,' Kasyanov said. 'He clearly believes he can continue the war without making any concessions. And he is convinced that he is winning a war of attrition against Ukraine.' He cautioned that the approaching winter could be particularly harsh for Ukraine.
Calls for Western Unity and Air Defences
Kasyanov urged Western countries to close ranks and apply what he called 'psychological pressure on the Kremlin.' He also called for an urgent supply of Patriot missile interceptors to help protect Ukrainian skies as Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure intensify.
Politics at Home
Speaking from exile in Riga — where he settled after leaving Russia in 2022 — Kasyanov described a ruling class dominated by fear. He said many in the elite privately want the war to end, but disagree on what 'end' should mean: victory, Putin's defeat or simply a halt to the fighting.
He said ordinary Russians currently show no signs of revolt despite mounting casualties and higher food prices: 'Russians have lived with high inflation for the past 30 years. They have grown accustomed to putting up with it.' However, Kasyanov warned that large-scale new mobilisations could spark street protests.
Authoritarian Drift and Provocations
Kasyanov described Russia as having become 'practically totalitarian' with growing social tension, fatalism and mistrust between people. He noted that Moscow labelled him a 'foreign agent' in 2023 and said the government has tightened control over elections and public life.
On Kremlin rhetoric about using 'all types of weapons' if Kaliningrad were threatened, Kasyanov urged Western capitals not to be intimidated. He characterized Putin not as a psychopath but as a 'highly calculating cynic' who uses hybrid attacks and sabre-rattling to provoke responses he can exploit.
Nonetheless, Kasyanov said he did not believe Putin seeks an open war with Europe: 'What Putin wants is respect. He wants to force all of Europe to give it to him.'
Context: Putin, a former KGB officer who turns 74 this week, has repeatedly insisted the war enjoys broad domestic support. His ruling party recently secured a supermajority in elections critics say were tightly controlled, which the Kremlin portrayed as backing for its policies.
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