Energy UK warns that UK households could face a winter energy squeeze comparable to 2022, estimating typical bills could reach around £2,100 by early 2027 (about £2,500 in 2022 terms). The industry cites prolonged gas supply disruption from the Middle East and low European storage as drivers of higher costs. Ministers have introduced VAT relief and removed some green levies, but Energy UK urges further, well-targeted measures to protect the poorest and avoid costly emergency interventions.
UK At Risk Of 2022-Style Winter Energy Crisis — Energy UK Warns Bills Could Hit £2,100
In the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the winter of 2022 was a tough one for many households - Christopher Furlong/Getty
British households face the prospect of a winter energy crisis on a scale comparable to 2022, industry representatives warned, calling on ministers to act quickly to protect vulnerable billpayers.
Energy UK, the trade body for suppliers, said a typical household bill could rise to around £2,100 at the start of 2027 — roughly equivalent to the £2,500 cap seen in 2022 when Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered a gas shock and prompted government intervention.
Dhara Vyas, Chief Executive of Energy UK, said: "We cannot afford to wait for the same scale of crisis before acting again. We must heed the lessons from that time. The Government must act now to prevent this situation getting worse and causing even more problems over the longer term. Last-minute emergency interventions run the risk of being badly targeted and costing us all more."
Energy UK urged ministers — and named local and national figures who can influence policy, such as Mayor Andy Burnham — to take measures to support the poorest households and to continue removing regressive levies from bills.
Why Bills Could Rise
Suppliers point to prolonged disruption to gas supplies linked to the conflict in the Middle East. A seven-month upheaval to deliveries has left gas storage levels across Europe unusually low heading into winter, and it will take time to replenish stocks. That sustained tightness in supply risks keeping energy prices elevated well into the spring.
What Has Already Been Done
The government announced a temporary cut to VAT on electricity bills in July, a measure estimated to save households an average of around £45 a year; that cut is scheduled to expire in April 2027. Earlier this year the government also removed several green levies from household electricity costs, reducing a typical bill by about £150 annually.
Critics note that the 2022 Energy Price Guarantee — which capped a typical household bill at £2,500 — was widely criticised for being poorly targeted and expensive, with an estimated cost to the Exchequer of around £24.8bn.
Government Response
The Energy Secretary, Miatta Fahnbulleh, said the government is "continuing to look at what more we can do to protect families from unaffordable bills, as we drive down bills for good through clean power." Energy UK and other industry leaders are urging carefully targeted, pre-emptive measures to avoid the need for costly, blanket emergency interventions.
With households having reduced consumption since 2022, Energy UK notes that an annual bill of £2,500 at 2022-23 price levels would be roughly equivalent to about £2,100 today — reflecting lower average usage but persistent price pressure.
What Consumers Should Watch: developments in government support, updates on European gas storage levels, and any announcements from suppliers about tariffs or emergency measures.
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