The latest Fox News poll shows Democrat Abdul El-Sayed with a narrow 50%–49% lead over Republican Mike Rogers among likely Michigan voters, with similar margins among registered voters. Voter worries about Rogers' ties to Donald Trump and perceptions that El-Sayed is too liberal help explain the tight race. El-Sayed leads with women, Black voters, younger voters and college graduates, while Rogers performs best with men, rural voters and White evangelicals. Economic concerns and issue priorities such as immigration, Israel policy and AI are influencing which candidate voters prefer.
Fox News Poll: El-Sayed Holds Narrow Lead Over Rogers In Tight Michigan Senate Race
Fox News Poll: Michigan voters split between El-Sayed and Rogers
A new Fox News poll finds Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holding a razor-thin lead over Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan's U.S. Senate contest, reflecting voter concerns about both nominees that have tightened the race.
Among likely voters, El-Sayed leads 50% to 49%, while the registered-voter split is nearly identical at 51% for El-Sayed and 48% for Rogers. This represents a reversal since August, when Rogers led registered voters 51% to 47%. The survey released Wednesday is the first Fox News Poll this cycle that reports among likely voters, so results are not directly comparable to earlier polls using different samples.
Support Certainty and Swing Voters: El-Sayed's supporters report slightly greater certainty: 87% of his backers say they are sure of their choice versus 80% of Rogers' supporters. Overall, 15% of likely voters say they could still change their pick before Election Day (18% of Rogers supporters, 12% of El-Sayed supporters).
Why The Race Is So Close
Voters express roughly equal reservations about the two candidates: 39% say Rogers is too close to former President Donald Trump, while 36% say El-Sayed's views are too liberal. Favorability ratings are also close: 47% view El-Sayed positively and 44% view Rogers positively. Since August, El-Sayed's positive rating is up five points among registered voters while Rogers' has fallen by four.
“The Michigan Senate race is unique in that short-term political forces favoring the Democrats are somewhat offset by concerns about the Democratic candidate,” said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. He added that El-Sayed has made progress consolidating Democratic support and that there is room to grow amid voter concerns about the economy.
Coalitions And Issue Effects
El-Sayed performs best with groups that typically lean Democratic — women, Black voters, college graduates, voters under 45 and union households. Rogers is strongest with men, rural voters, White evangelical Christians, married voters and White voters without a college degree.
Party loyalty is high for both: 95% of Republicans back Rogers and 93% of Democrats back El-Sayed. Rogers earns 99% support from self-identified MAGA Republicans and 88% from non-MAGA Republicans; El-Sayed receives 98% support from DSA-aligned Democrats and 90% from other Democrats. Independents narrowly favor El-Sayed in this sample.
Issue priorities shape candidate advantages. Cost of living is extremely important to 7 in 10 voters; this group favors El-Sayed by 13 points. Voters most focused on U.S. policy toward Israel favor El-Sayed by 8 points, and those prioritizing AI technology prefer him by 17 points. Rogers leads by 26 points among voters for whom immigration is the top issue.
On perceptions of Trump, half of Michigan voters say the former president is extremely important to their Senate vote; those voters favor El-Sayed by 22 points. For context, Trump won Michigan in 2024 by under two points, while Rogers narrowly lost a prior contest to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by less than half a point.
Economy And Voter Self-Assessment
How voters describe their household finances correlates with preferences: about 4 in 10 say their household is falling behind financially and favor El-Sayed by 25 points; nearly half say their family is holding steady and favor Rogers by 13 points; the small share getting ahead prefer Rogers by 36 points.
Voter frustration with the administration creates headwinds for Rogers: nearly 6 in 10 Michigan voters disapprove of the president's job performance, while 40% approve. Rogers receives 93% support from those who approve of the president, but he still picks up 19% support from disapprovers overall. Among those who only "somewhat" disapprove of the president, 28% say they prefer El-Sayed.
Other Races
In the gubernatorial contest to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Democrat Jocelyn Benson leads Republican John James 54% to 45% among likely voters. About 12% of Rogers' Senate supporters say they would cross party lines to vote for Benson.
Poll Methodology
The Fox News Poll was conducted Sept. 24-28, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The registered-voter sample includes 1,203 Michigan registered voters drawn from a statewide voter file. Interviews were conducted with live interviewers on landlines (114) and cellphones (794) and online after a text message invitation (295). The likely-voter subsample is 1,028. The margin of sampling error is ±2.5 percentage points for the registered-voter sample and ±3 percentage points for the likely-voter sample; subgroup margins are larger.
Weights were applied using recent American Community Survey data, Fox News voter analysis and voter file information to align the sample by age, race, education and region. The likely-voter designation relies on a probabilistic model factoring past voting, current interest, intention to vote and demographic variables. Results for subgroups are reported only when sample sizes reach at least N = 100. Fox News' Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
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