Scott Tranter, Decision Desk HQ's director of data science, warned Sunday that Republican Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers has limited time to close the gap with Democrat Abdul El‑Sayed as early voting approaches.
DDHQ's forecast currently assigns El‑Sayed a 67% probability of winning in November and gives Rogers a 33% chance. Tranter told NewsNation's Chris Stirewalt on "The Hill Sunday" that, while the race is closer than Republicans would like, momentum favors El‑Sayed.
"El‑Sayed's got the momentum. It's pretty undeniable," Tranter said. He added that with early voting starting in about a month and roughly a third of Michigan ballots typically cast before Election Day, "Mike Rogers's time is running out."
Tranter and Stirewalt also discussed the potential political risks tied to El‑Sayed's positions on Israel and the impact of former Vice President Kamala Harris's endorsement. The hosts noted that Harris faced opposition from some pro‑Palestinian activists during the 2024 campaign amid debates over the Biden administration's Israel policy; El‑Sayed has criticized the Israeli government and expressed support for Palestinians in Gaza.
Harris is expected to join El‑Sayed, who is a physician, at a roundtable on Black maternal health on Tuesday. El‑Sayed told Politico that both he and Harris have been leaders on the issue and called her an "inspirational leader."
Earlier this month, more than a dozen Michigan rabbis and Jewish community leaders launched a petition urging the candidate to change his rhetoric on Israel. The petition — which did not name El‑Sayed but was widely understood to target his campaign — asked him to affirm Jewish safety, acknowledge Israel's right to exist and encourage civic and political participation among Jewish voters.
Rogers skipped a televised debate with El‑Sayed last week, saying he "never agreed" to take part; El‑Sayed spoke for an hour next to an empty podium. Rogers accused the moderator, Roop Raj of Fox 2 Detroit, of bias — a claim Raj has denied — and Raj publicly urged Rogers to participate for voters' benefit. Rogers has said two televised debates are scheduled for October.
Recent polling shows a tight race with El‑Sayed holding a narrow lead. The Hill/Emerson College survey released Thursday found El‑Sayed at 48% and Rogers at 46%, with 4% undecided.
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