Sabato's Crystal Ball Shifts Michigan Senate Race Toward El-Sayed as Polls and Markets Tilt Democrat

Abdul El-Sayed has gained momentum against Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan's open Senate race after Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the contest from "Toss-up" to "Leans Democratic." The forecaster cited a "persistently poor national environment for Republicans" and noted it already regarded El-Sayed as a "soft favorite."

Sabato's update follows a string of polls and market indicators that have shown the Democrat with a modest advantage. A Suffolk University survey cited by the Crystal Ball put El-Sayed ahead 47% to 40%, though the forecaster cautioned that the poll appeared to be a favorable outlier because its recalled 2024 presidential vote suggested an electorate positioned to the left of Michigan's actual 2024 result. A Washington Post/Schar School poll showed a narrower lead for El-Sayed, 48% to 45%.

Polling, Markets And Caveats

Sabato's said overall polling usually gives El-Sayed a slim edge, while noting Rogers has typically stayed competitive but rarely climbed much above the mid-40s. The forecaster also warned that El-Sayed, a progressive, "is likely to underperform what a Democratic Senate candidate could or should get in Michigan in a year like 2026," signaling room for volatility.

Prediction market Polymarket also reflected a surge for El-Sayed: as of Wednesday the market showed roughly a 73% chance for El-Sayed versus 28% for Rogers. Prediction markets react quickly to news and trader behavior, but their prices reflect market sentiment rather than a representative sample of voters.

Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed (L) and former U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris participate in a roundtable discussion about reproductive health at Birth Detroit on September 22, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan.

Campaign Activity And Exchanges

El-Sayed campaigned in Detroit with former Vice President Kamala Harris at a birth center on Sept. 22, marking their first public appearance together since Harris endorsed him after his August primary victory. "We have 42 days left. What we do in those six weeks will make a huge difference," El-Sayed said at the event, thanking Harris for her visit.

The campaigns have also traded sharp attacks on foreign policy and public safety. On X, El-Sayed shared a map from statistician Nate Silver showing Michigan among states with the largest increases in regular gas prices, posting: "Michigan. Thanks to Donald Trump's outrageous war in Iran, cosigned by Mike Rogers." Rogers countered on social media by accusing El-Sayed of supporting policies that "defund the police and empty prisons," and warned that "Michigan families can't afford his pro-crime policies."

Other Senate Rating Changes

Sabato's Crystal Ball also adjusted ratings in other competitive states: it moved Iowa's open Senate race from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-up," citing mixed polling results and political dynamics, and shifted Kansas from "Likely Republican" to "Leans Republican," noting negative coverage of Senator Roger Marshall and polling that showed Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton narrowly ahead. Even so, the forecaster said it would still be surprised if Kansas elected its first Democratic senator since 1932.

Newsweek contacted both campaigns for comment by email and an online form on Wednesday. Newsweek's reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to help produce this story.