SPUR Warns Bay Area Commutes Could Double If Transit Funding Measures Fail

The San Francisco Bay Area Planning and Urban Research Association (SPUR) warned on Sept. 22 that commutes for many Bay Area residents — especially those who cross the Bay Bridge — could nearly double if the region's largest transit agencies fail to secure new funding and enter what the report calls a "fiscal death spiral."

What SPUR Modeled

SPUR modeled the traffic, economic and equity consequences if two November ballot measures do not pass and major operators cut service: Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART), Caltrain, San Francisco Municipal Railway (Muni) and Alameda-Contra Costa Transit District (AC Transit). The measures are:

Regional Transit Measure — a five-county tax expected to raise about $1 billion a year for 14 years; and Proposition H (Prop H) — a San Francisco property tax expected to raise about $177 million a year for 15 years. If both pass, SPUR says they would address a substantial share of the shortfalls facing the region's core transit systems.

Projected Impacts If Measures Fail

SPUR found that significant service cuts would push many riders into cars, aggravating congestion at major highway bottlenecks — including the Bay Bridge, the Caldecott Tunnel and stretches of I-580, I-680, I-880, State Route 4 and U.S. 101.

"The impacts would be dramatic. Reduced transit service would push more people into cars, worsening congestion on already-strained highways and increasing travel distances, parking demand, driving costs, and greenhouse gas emissions."

Key modeled impacts include:

• About 498 million additional vehicle miles traveled per year — roughly equivalent to adding 68,200 cars to Bay Area roads.
• An increase of roughly 184,000 metric tons of CO2 annually.
• Average delays at major bottlenecks roughly doubling; drivers on I-680 could see an extra 15–20 minutes during peak commutes.
• Some transit riders potentially needing to drive an average of 10 extra miles each way to reach an open station.
• An estimated average added cost of $3,280 per year for a typical transit rider who shifts to driving.
• Nearly 430,000 people living near BART or Caltrain stations could lose access to their closest stations, with low-income communities disproportionately affected.

Responses

San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie echoed SPUR's conclusions and reiterated his support for Prop H and the Regional Transit Measure, saying the findings "confirm what we all know: we have to pass Prop H and the Regional Transit Measure." He called the measures "essential to our economic recovery," warning that increased traffic would mean longer commutes and higher costs for families.

Opponents argue SPUR did not explore every alternative. Gregg Dieguez, president of the Committee for Affordable Bay Area Transit, told NBC Bay Area that the group wants operational fixes and reallocations before asking residents for more revenue. "Before asking Bay Area residents for another $1.2 billion a year, the transit establishment should demonstrate that it has considered the full range of lower-cost transportation revenue and network design alternatives," Dieguez said.

Why This Matters

Beyond delays and higher household costs, SPUR's analysis highlights equity and environmental consequences: service cuts would worsen access for transit-dependent communities and increase greenhouse gas emissions at a time when transportation remains the region's largest source of CO2.

Reporting: Noe Padilla, Northern California reporter for USA TODAY. Contact: [email protected]. Follow: X @1NoePadilla or Bluesky @noepadilla.bsky.social.