New research links a tropical warm pool to recent ice gains in East Antarctica. Satellite gravimetry and ice-core evidence indicate East Antarctica gained nearly 700 billion tons of ice since about 2020, largely from increased snowfall delivered by atmospheric rivers. The study identifies a Rossby wave train, triggered by warming where the western Pacific meets the eastern Indian Ocean (2021–2023), as the main driver, but scientists caution the boost is fragile and could reverse if atmospheric-river activity declines.
A Tropical Hot Spot Is Helping East Antarctica Gain Ice — And It Could Be Temporary
Antarctica Is Growing. That's Not All Good.by wildestanimal - Getty Images
Recent research reveals a surprising connection between a warming patch of tropical ocean and an uptick in snowfall over parts of East Antarctica. Satellite gravimetry, ice-core records, and atmospheric modeling show that sustained warming where the western Pacific meets the eastern Indian Ocean produced atmospheric patterns that funneled moisture onto Queen Mary Land and Wilkes Land, adding mass to the East Antarctic Ice Sheet.
What the Study Found
An international team, reporting in Nature, traced nearly 700 billion tons of increased ice mass in East Antarctica to changes in tropical sea surface temperatures between about 2021 and 2023. The warming excited a Rossby wave train — a chain of large-scale atmospheric waves — that created a north–south pressure dipole. That pattern shifted moisture pathways and strengthened long, narrow plumes of moisture called atmospheric rivers, which delivered elevated snowfall to portions of East Antarctica.
How Scientists Measured the Change
GRACE and similar gravimetry satellites detect tiny variations in Earth’s gravity field caused by changes in ice mass, allowing researchers to monitor gains and losses in continental ice sheets. The new Nature paper combines those satellite observations with precipitation signals preserved in ice cores and targeted atmospheric model experiments to link the tropical warming to Antarctic mass changes. Earlier work in Environmental Research Letters (2023) and in Communications Earth & Environment also documented the recent mass increase and the role of atmospheric rivers.
“We found a previously underrecognized 'tropical warm pool–East Antarctic Ice Sheet' teleconnection pathway,” said Yunhe Wang of the Institute of Oceanology at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the study’s lead author. “Our research provides a theoretical basis for understanding Antarctic ice-sheet mass changes and conducting future research on the East Antarctic climate.”
Why This Isn’t Cause For Complacency
Although increased snowfall in East Antarctica has offset much of the mass loss elsewhere — especially in parts of West Antarctica — scientists warn the gain is fragile. Increased ice discharge into the ocean and variability in atmospheric-river activity mean a few years with reduced moisture deliveries could quickly reverse the trend. As Ruth Mottram of the Danish Meteorological Institute warned, “Antarctica is finely balanced right now. A few years with fewer atmospheric rivers could easily tip things back the other way.”
What It Means For Sea Level
The Antarctic Ice Sheet holds enough water to raise global sea levels by roughly 190 feet if it were to melt entirely, though only a small fraction of that would inundate coastal cities in plausible scenarios. Short-term increases in Antarctic snowfall can temporarily slow global sea-level rise, but long-term projections depend on sustained climate trends, ocean warming, and ice-sheet dynamics.
Bottom line: The study highlights a powerful long-distance climate link: remote tropical ocean warming can influence polar precipitation and temporarily alter the mass balance of Antarctica. Monitoring tropical sea surface temperatures, atmospheric rivers, and ice-sheet behavior together will be critical for understanding future sea-level risk.
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