Gas prices have surged in an unprecedented midterm-year pattern, threatening the GOP's prospects in the 2026 midterms. AAA data show a 52% year-to-date rise in gasoline since January, with Brent crude near $109 a barrel and regular gas at $4.32 per gallon. Prices unexpectedly climbed 6% between Aug. 14 and Sept. 14, and the odds that gas stays above $4 on Election Day rose to 59% — a mix that pollsters and CNN analyst Harry Enten say could hurt the party in power.
CNN Analyst Warns Surging Gas Prices Could Threaten Trump’s Midterm Majority
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The price Americans pay at the pump is moving against the White House as the 2026 midterm elections approach, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten warned. Enten said gasoline costs have climbed in a pattern unseen in any midterm year this century and are still rising after Labor Day.
Enten traced the spike back to February, when the conflict with Iran escalated and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz constrained a major oil-shipping route. Brent crude traded near $109 a barrel on Monday, while AAA reported regular gasoline at $4.32 per gallon and diesel at a record $6.23 per gallon.
The most striking metric is the year-to-date change: AAA data show gasoline prices have risen 52% since January. That figure nearly doubles the previous midterm-year high of 27% and far exceeds the 18% average increase recorded during midterm years this century (reporting via The Daily Beast).
Unusual Seasonal Pattern
Enten highlighted another atypical signal: historically, gas prices tend to ease between Aug. 14 and Sept. 14 in midterm years. Instead, prices climbed 6% during that period in 2026. As Enten put it:
"This is record-breaking. In fact, the relief is not there at all. In fact, there is more pain at the pump now."
Enten also said the probability that gasoline will remain above $4 per gallon on Election Day has risen to 59%, up from 30% at the beginning of September — a shift he warned could imperil the party controlling Congress if the trend persists.
Political Impact
Voters appear sensitive to higher energy costs tied to the Iran conflict. A CBS News/YouGov poll found 71% of respondents would not accept higher pump prices because of the war; that sentiment rises to 81% among independents. Enten described the combination of rising prices and voter resistance as "killer stuff for congressional majorities."
Recent polling also shows Democratic congressional candidates leading 54% to 46% among likely voters. Reports suggest mounting tension inside the White House over limited influence on global oil markets; former Trump economic adviser Stephen Moore told Politico the administration faces few options as energy prices climb.
Bottom line: The unusual magnitude and timing of this gas-price surge create political risk for the party in power heading into the 2026 midterms, according to analysts and recent polling.
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