Mary Peltola, a two-time statewide-elected former congresswoman and the first Alaska Native member of Congress, has mounted a strong challenge to Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), turning a usually safe Republican seat into a competitive contest that could affect control of the U.S. Senate. Polling is mixed — one early-August survey shows Peltola up by two points while a June New York Times/Siena poll shows Sullivan ahead by two — and Alaska’s scattered population makes polling difficult. The upcoming open primary and November general election remain uncertain as both campaigns press their case and national spending increases.
Alaska Senate Race Tightens: Mary Peltola Emerges As Strong Challenger To Sen. Dan Sullivan
Republicans face unexpected challenge in Alaska Senate race
What is normally a reliably Republican state has become a competitive battleground as former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola challenges incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) in a race that could influence the GOP’s Senate majority this November.
Race Overview
Sullivan is facing a serious bid from Peltola amid mixed polling, and national Republican groups have increased spending to bolster the senator’s reelection effort. Longtime Alaska political reporter James Brooks attributes the closer contest to a national environment that favors Democrats in some areas — citing low approval ratings for former President Trump and widespread concerns about the rising cost of living.
"I talked with somebody who was door knocking for Sullivan in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, which is a very Republican area, and they were finding very lukewarm support among people who answered their doors," Brooks said. "And this was from someone who supports Sullivan and was door knocking for him."
Why Peltola Is Competitive
Peltola brings name recognition and a distinct profile: she was elected statewide twice to represent Alaska in Congress, was the first Alaska Native member of Congress, has worked on commercial fishing boats and served as a tribal judge. She emphasizes an independent, bipartisan record, has been aligned with moderate Democrats (including elements of the Blue Dog coalition), and has employed Republican staffers in her office and campaign.
"I don't think there's anyone else in the state who could give Dan Sullivan as tough of a race as Peltola can," Brooks said.
Sullivan's Case
Sullivan, serving his second Senate term, is a Marine Corps veteran, a former Alaska attorney general and a Bush administration alumnus who defeated one-term Democrat Mark Begich in the 2014 election. The Sullivan campaign emphasizes his legislative record, economic message and support for last year's GOP reconciliation and tax legislation — which the campaign markets in Alaska as the "Alaska Opportunity Act."
Nate Adams, a Sullivan campaign spokesperson, said the campaign plans to counter any suggestion that Peltola is an outsider by reminding voters she served in Congress until recently and by highlighting Sullivan's work on energy, job creation and defense.
Polling, Process And What To Watch
Polling in Alaska is notoriously difficult because the state's population is widely dispersed across many smaller communities. The most recent publicly available survey, Alaska Survey Research (early August), showed Peltola up by two points; that firm is run by a consultant who has worked for Democrats. Other surveys, including a June New York Times/Siena poll, put Sullivan ahead by two points. The mixed results underscore how close the contest appears today.
The first formal test is the open primary, where all 16 candidates from all parties will appear on the same ballot and the top four finishers advance to the general election. Brooks cautioned that August turnout historically skews toward Democrats in Alaska, which could make the primary results a poor predictor of the November outcome.
Both campaigns say they will try to capitalize on limited voter attention over the coming months. The Peltola campaign has highlighted grassroots fundraising — saying 95 percent of donations are under $100 — and accused Sullivan of enriching himself while in office, citing a reported 37 percent approval rating for the senator. The Sullivan camp is focused on contrasting policy priorities and emphasizing his record.
With Republicans needing to hold most of their current seats to retain a Senate majority, Alaska joins several other competitive contests this cycle. The race remains fluid and will hinge on turnout, messaging and outside spending as voters head into November.
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