Andy Burnham's elevation to prime minister has produced a polling boost for Labour, with three polls in three days placing the party ahead of Nigel Farage's Reform UK. YouGov shows Labour at 24 points versus Reform's 22, and five national surveys have now put Labour on top since Burnham took office. The gain appears to have pulled support away from the Greens and Liberal Democrats and strengthened Labour among former supporters and young voters. The Conservatives have steadied at 21 points, while Reform faces leadership and standards inquiries — making an early general election a strategically significant question for Mr Burnham.
Burnham Bounce: Labour Tops Reform in Three Consecutive Polls as Support Shifts
There have now been five national polls putting Mr Burnham's party ahead since his appointment as prime minister (Getty)
Andy Burnham's appointment as prime minister has coincided with a notable surge in Labour's polling, with three polls in three days placing the party ahead of Nigel Farage's Reform UK for the first time in over a year.
Polls At A Glance
A YouGov survey published on Monday put Labour on 24 points versus Reform's 22, a two-point lead. That followed an Ipsos poll on Sunday showing a three-point advantage for Labour and an Opinium survey on Saturday that recorded a two-point lead. In total, five national polls have placed Labour ahead since Mr Burnham took office, marking a significant short-term boost for the government.
Where Voters Are Moving
The shift appears to have drawn support back to Labour from smaller parties. YouGov's latest figures show Green support falling from 21 points at the end of February to 12 points, while roughly 16% of 2024 Green voters and 12% of 2024 Liberal Democrat voters now say they would back Labour. Former Labour voters’ stated support has also risen from 49% when the previous prime minister stood down in June to 60% in the newest poll.
Young voters have also responded: support among 18-to-24-year-olds has climbed from 14% to about 25% over the same period.
Anthony Wells, head of politics and elections at YouGov, told The Times: "What you see in the numbers is not only that Labour has increased its vote share but both the Greens and the Liberal Democrats have seen a substantial drop in their support, which had been boosted by Labour defectors."
Impact On Rivals And What Comes Next
The bounce is a setback for Nigel Farage and Reform, which had earlier overtaken Labour in April 2025. Farage stepped down as MP for Clacton this week, triggering a by-election he is now contesting, and faces an ongoing parliamentary standards investigation as he prepares to return to Westminster.
The Conservatives have stabilised at around 21 points (down slightly from a June peak of 22) and their leader, Kemi Badenoch, has seen her net approval recover to approximately +1 from a low of -26 in September.
Labour's improved position has sparked renewed debate about whether Mr Burnham should call an early general election. A victory would give him a fresh mandate to pursue the policy programme he has outlined, but timing would need to account for the current fragmentation of the centre and the continuing uncertainty around Reform's leadership and investigations.
Bottom Line
The recent string of polls shows a clear short-term lift for Labour under Andy Burnham, with meaningful movement away from smaller parties and modest gains among young and former Labour voters. How durable that advantage will be remains uncertain, but it reshapes the strategic calculations for all major parties ahead of any potential early election.
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